ARLINGTON MILLION TRENDS 2013

[ganjaman2]

The Arlington Million was first run in 1981 and was the first ever race to offer a purse of $1 million as the prize. It takes place at Arlington Park on Saturday 17th August and as per usual there looks likely to be a European presence in the race.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 0-0-1


4yo: 6-7-40


5yo: 3-4-28


6yo: 0-6-17


7yo+: 1-2-12


Horses aged 4 or 5 have a combined record of 9-11-68


Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 1-8-27


Since 1990 only one horse not aged 4 or 5 has won this, The Tin Man in 2006, who won grade 1’s on his next 2 outings.



Breeding


USA bred: 4-12-51
Irish bred: 3-2-19
GB bred: 1-3-12
Canadian bred: 1-0-2
French bred: 1-0-7
German bred: 0-2-3
Brazilian bred: 0-0-4
Horses bred in Europe: 5-7-41
Horses bred in North or South America: 5-12-57

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was 4th in a York group 2)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ in last 3 outings
9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners ran 2 to 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 60 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (exception was a grade 1 winner over 1M 1F, having first try over further)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception was beaten a head in a group 1 & other was a group 2 winner)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Little Mike): 22 (0-2-2)


Highest placed finisher from previous year's French Derby: 1113 (3-1-4)


Highest placed finisher from Manhattan H'cap: 91821279 (2-2-8)


Arlington Handicap winner (Rahystrada): 979562463 (0-2-9)


Premio Roma winner (Hunter's Light): 3 (0-1-1)


2 of 5 N American-trained winners ran in Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, finishing 61
2 of 5 N American-trained winners ran in Manhattan H'cap, finishing 91
2 of 5 N American-trained winners ran in Gulfstream Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 31
2 of 5 N American-trained winners ran in previous year's Jamacian H'cap, finishing 22
2 of 5 N American-trained winners ran in the previous year's Hollywood Derby, finishing 37
3 of 5 European-trained winners ran in previous year's French Derby, finishing 100
2 of 5 European-trained winners ran in Dubai Sheema Classic, finishing 15
2 of 5 European-trained winners ran in previous year's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 5 European-trained winners ran in previous year's Prix De L'Arc, finishing 40
2 of 5 European-trained winners ran in previous year's Prix Guillaume d'Ornano, finishing 25d
2 of 10 winners ran in the Man O'War Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 34
4 of 5 European-based winners ran at Dubai Carnival that year

Trainers


American trained runners: 4-9-56
British-trained runners: 2-6-18
Irish-trained runners: 2-0-7
Canadian trained runners: 1-0-3
French-trained runners: 1-0-10
German-trained runners: 0-3-3
South African-trained runners: 0-1-1
European-trained runners: 5-9-38
North-American-trained runners: 5-9-59
Dale Romans (1-1-2) has saddled a winner & runner-up from 2 representatives since 2003.


Richard Mandella (1-1-3) trained The Tin Man to finish 6th, 1st & 2nd.


Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-2) won the race in stewards’ room in 2003 with Sulamani.


Mike De Kock (0-1-1) & Byron Hughes (0-1-3) have both saddled a placed finisher in last 5 years.

Price


No strong trends on prices. There have been a couple of upsets in past 5 years with Spirit One winning at 137/10 in 2008 and Debussy winning at 11/1 in 2010 while the other 2 runnings went to the first or second in the betting.
Favourites (3-5-10) show a level stakes loss of 0.90 over past 10 years.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Run 2 to 5 times in 2013
· Finished in the first 3 in a group 1 or 2 last time (posting RPR of 110+)
· Posted an RPR of 118+ in last 3 starts
· Ran in the past 60 days
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Previously won a group 1
· Ran in the Manhattan H’cap, Woodford Reserve Classic or at Dubai Carnival in 2013
· Ran in the 2012 French Derby
· Trained by Dale Romans, Richard Mandella or in Europe