ST LEGER TRENDS 2013

[ganjaman2]

The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 14th September, is the final Classic of the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 11 of 13 winners since 2000 ran in one or the other on their previous start.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos.

Dosage
The average dosage profile (DP) of last 10 winners is 6-2-14-5-1 (28.2pts)
Composite Dosage Index (DI) of last 10 winners is 1.12
Composite Centre Of Distribution (CD) of last 10 winners is 0.233

Gender
Fillies (0-3-9) have gained 3 places from 9 runners (2 of the 3 placed finishers were group 1 winners & the other was an unbeaten group winner).
From just 21 representatives over the last 30 runnings, fillies have a 57.1% strike rate of hitting the frame having recorded three wins (Sun Princess, Oh So Sharp and User Friendly), six seconds (Diminuendo, Hellenic, Quiff, High And Low (2nd G1), Ramruma and Unsung Heroine (G3, 2nd g2)) and three thirds (Untold, Roseate Tern and Look Here) which is a good return.
Record of group 1 winning fillies: 23246 (0-3-5)

Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.7F (2 exceptions by Kingmambo
7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Epsom or French Derby’s
5 of 10 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
Progeny of Kingmambo: 1381 (2-0-4)
Progeny of Montjeu: 1877307686512 (2-2-13)
Progeny of Galileo: 0032187209272443 (1-6-16)
All 3 runners out of a mare by Diesis were victorious

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season
6 of 10 winners won last time (3 other finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur)
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had last run between 24 and 65 days ago
10 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 113+ on last 2 starts (8 last time out)
10 of 10 winners won their maiden over 7F+
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (exception 2nd in Voltigeur)
8 of 10 winner had won a group race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)

Royal Ascot
Queen's Vase winner (Leading Light): 2 (0-1-1)
Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII Stakes: 223114188 (3-3-9)
4 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 3222
Since 2001 there have been 16 runners in the Leger that have earned an RPR of 105+ in defeat in a 1M2F+ pattern race at Royal Ascot, 7 have won

Other Races
Gordon Stakes winner (Cap O'Rushes): 34211 (2-2-5)
Highest placed finisher from Gordon Stakes: 34210181 (3-2-8)
Great Voltigeur winner (Telescope): 1513636 (2-2-7)
Voltigeur top finisher: 1153103636 (3-3-10)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Feel Like Dancing): 231 (1-2-3)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingsbarns): 12 (1-1-2)
Epsom Derby winner (Ruler Of The World): 2 (0-1-1)
Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby: 7161162612 (4-2-10)
Derrinstown Derby Trial winner (Battle Of Marengo): 2 (0-1-1)
Epsom Oaks winner (Talent): 34 (0-1-2)
Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup EBF Condition Stakes winner (Contributer): 82 (0-1-2)
King George V Stakes winner (Elidor): 082 (0-1-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 21123
4 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 1132
5 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 02748
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby, finishing 442
2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13

Trainers
John Gosden (3-1-8) has won 3 of the last 6 runnings.
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-23) has won 2 of the last 10 renewals but saddled a whopping 23 runners (23.7% of total runners). His first string has a record of 2-4-10.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-4) saddled the winner in 2004 and the 1-2 in 2009.
Michael Stoute (1-2-10) finally gained his first win in this race in 2008 with Conduit.

Price
No strong trends on prices, 6 of the first 7 runnings since the turn of the century were won by the favourite, however the last 5 winners have gone off 8/1, 12/1, 14/1, 15/2 & 25/1.
Favourites (4-5-11) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.47.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
By a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.7F (or by Kingmambo)
By a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Diesis mare
Sire finished in first 2 in Epsom/French Derby
Dosage Index close to 1.12
Centre Of Distribution close to 0.233
Run 3 to 5 times in 2013
Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
Posted an RPR of 113 or higher last time
Won a group race over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
Ran in the Epsom Derby
Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII or Irish Derby
Trained by John Gosden, Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien