IRISH CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2013

[ganjaman2]

The Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday, 7th September, is one of the highest quality flat races run in Europe each year. There have been some superb duels down the years such as St Jovite & Dr Devious, Fantastic Light & Galileo and Dylan Thomas & Ouija Board.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 6-4-30
4yo: 2-8-22
5yo: 2-2-14
6yo+: 0-0-5
3yos (6-4-30) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 4-10-41) and 3yos have won 5 of the last 8 renewals, in 2 of 3 other runnings there was no 3yo runner priced shorter than 12/1.
Record of 3yo colts that’d won a group 1 that year: 441211132115 (6-3-12)

Gender
Fillies and mares (1-3-11) have gained 1 and 3 places from 11 runners in the past 10 years.
All 6 female runners aged 4+ that were sent off shorter than 20/1 finished in first 3.
3 of 4 female runners to get placed had finished 1st or 2nd in Nassau on previous start, other won the group 1 Prix Jean Romanet on previous start and was 2nd in previous year’s Nassau
All three 3yo fillies to run in this finished 6th or 7th.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season (2 exceptions won on only run that year)
10 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F (exception won St James Palace last time & was having first run over further than a mile)
10 of 10 winners had won a group 1
7 of 10 winners had won multiple group 1's (3 exceptions were all 3yos)
7 of 10 winners had previously run at Leopardstown (6 were unbeaten at the track and other was 2nd in this race the previous year on only course start)
5 of 6 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo
4 of 4 winners aged 4+ had won 4 or more group 1's

Other Races
Eclipse Stakes winner (Al Kazeem): 2211312 (3-3-7)
Epsom Derby winner (Ruler Of The World): 211 (2-1-3)
Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 44121 (2-1-5)
Judmonte International winner (Declaration Of War): 212 (1-2-3)
Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (Al Kazeem): 3671 (1-1-4)
Previous year's Irish Derby winner (Camelot): 1 (1-0-1)
Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Camelot): 1 (1-0-1)
Alleged Stakes winner (Parish Hall): 1 (1-0-1)
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Magician): 35 (0-1-2)
Prince Of Wales' Stakes winner (Al Kazeem): 552 (0-1-3)
Heritage Stakes winner (Declaration Of War): 463 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) ran in Juddmonte International last time, finishing 4231
3 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 12
4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Derby, finishing 0311
4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 3421
3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas finishing 222
3 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Futurity as a 2yo
2 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Beresford as a 2yo
2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 21
2 of 6 winners aged 3 won the Tyros as a 2yo
2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 21
2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Arc, finishing 33

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (6-5-26) has a super record in this race having won 6 of the last 10 runnings. If you just count his first strings his record improves to 5-3-10.
Jim Bolger (1-1-6) won the race in 2008 with New Approach.
John Gosden (0-1-1) saddled Nathaniel to finish 2nd last year, His only other runners in this race since 1990 were 2nd & 4th in 1994 and the winner in 1993.
Dermot Weld (0-0-4) has never trained the winner of this group 1.
British-trained runners (1-7-21) have won just 1 of last 10, last year’s renewal. In past 15 years, 4 of the 5 British-based winners came from Godolphin.

Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in past 10 years has been 8/1, not a race for big turn-ups.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 7 though show a level stakes loss of 1.31 since 2003.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· 3yo that won a group race as a 2yo & a group 1 in 2013
· Run 3+ times this season & won 1 of last 2 starts or
· Aged 4 or 5 and has won 4 or more group 1 races
· Won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F
· Won a group 1 (won 4 or more if aged 4+)
· Unbeaten at Leopardstown
· Finished in first 3 in King George, Eclipse and/or Juddmonte International
· 3yo finished in first 4 in Irish/English 2000 Guineas and/or Derby
· 4yo+ finished in first 3 in Prince Of Wales, Tatt’s Gold Cup and/or 2012 Arc
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden
· From first 4 in the betting