MATRON STAKES TRENDS 2013

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The Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes is a group 1 race for fillies and mares, run over a mile and is part of the supporting card at Leopardstown on Irish Champion Stakes Day on 7th September. The race was given group 1 status in 2004 and has been won by some very useful horses, such as Soviet Song and Attraction. British raiders have done very well in the race in the past decade, winning 7 of last 10 renewals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 5-10-54
4yo: 3-2-18
5yo: 2-4-8
6yo+: 0-1-3
Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 5 of last 10 from approximately 32.5% of total runners.
Since the race became a group 1 in 2004:
3yos: 4-9-48
4yo+: 5-6-26
In the four years that 3yos won this as a group 1 only 3 of the 8 older horses to run in it were priced under 16/1: (Peeress 2nd in 2006, Heaven Sent 2nd in 2009 & Spacious 2nd in 2010). 3 of 4 winners aged 3 since 2004 had won at Royal Ascot (other was 3rd in Coronation Stakes).
There has been no winner aged older than 5 in past 30 years and only two 5yo winners (Echelon in 2007 & Chachamaidee 2012), both of whom ran in Celebration Mile on previous start.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that year
7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a group race last time (2 exceptions were 4th against colts and other was 5th in group 1 Falmouth)
Since this became a group one 8 of 9 winners had posted an RPR of 111+ in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had won over a mile
8 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above that year
Since this became a group one 9 of 9 winners had won a group race (5 were group 1 winners)

Other Races
Abu Dhabi Stakes winner (Chigun): 113 (2-1-3)
Brownstown Stakes winner (Fiesolana): 2019 (1-1-4)
Falmouth Stakes winner (Elusive Kate): 123 (1-1-3)
Chartwell Fillies' Stakes winner (Lily's Angel): 51 (1-0-2)
Previous year's Cherry Hinton Stakes winner (Sendmylovetorose): 24 (0-1-2)
Athasi Stakes winner (Vitzoria): 48 (0-0-2)
Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Just Pretending): 8856 (0-0-4)
Highest placed finisher from Coronation Stakes: 264311144 (3-2-9)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 145
3 of 5 winners (last 3) aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 131
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the 1000 Guineas, finishing 65
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, finishing 52
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Abu Dhabi Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 2 winners aged 5 ran in Celebration Mile last time, finishing 14
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Sun Chariot, finishing 12
Since this became a group 1, 5 of 9 winners had run in 1000 Guineas as 3yo, finishing 41965
Since this became a group 1, 5 of 9 winners had run in Coronation Stakes as 3yo, finishing 21131

Trainers
British-trained horses: 7-8-27
Irish-trained horses: 3-9-55
British-based trainers have a very strong record in this race, having won 7 of the last 10 despite only representing less than a third of the total runners. Since this became a group 1 they have won 6 of 9 and filled 14 of 24 places.
Record of British-trained priced 6/1 or shorter: 7-8-18
Aidan O’Brien (1-4-16) won the race for the first time in 2010 with Lillie Langtry but his record prior to that had been very disappointing considering the number of fancied runners he’d saddled in the race.
Dermot Weld (1-1-7) trained the winner in 2002 and 2011.
The Cecil yard (1-0-1) won the race last year with Chachamaidee (promoted from 2nd).
Jim Bolger (1-0-4) & John Gosden (1-0-4) have also both trained the winner since 2003.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below
All 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting, not a race to be looking for an upset.
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 6 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 2.47.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· 3yo that won at Royal Ascot or aged 4 or 5
· Had 3 or more starts in 2013
· Finished in the first 2 in group company last time
· Posted an RPR of 111+ in last 2 starts
· Previously won over a mile
· Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
· Ran in the 1000 Guineas and/or Coronation Stakes as a 3yo
· Finished in first 5 in Falmouth Stakes
· Finished in first 3 in Coronation and/or Nassau Stakes
· Abu Dhabi Stakes winners do well in this
· Trained in Britain
· Priced 6/1 or below