PORTLAND HANDICAP TRENDS 2013

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The Ladbrokes Portland is the big handicap on the Saturday card of the Leger meeting at Doncaster. Run over 5F 140 yards it is always an enthralling cavalry charge that has thrown up some memorable finishes in the past decade.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-4-32
4yo: 1-12-53
5yo: 6-1-47
6yo: 0-6-28
7yo+: 3-7-51
Horses aged 3 or 4: 1-16-85
Horses aged 5+: 9-14-126
Horses aged 5+ have won 9 of last 10 from approximately 59.1% of total runners.
Since 2003 there have been 32 runners aged 3, all have been beaten with only 4 making the frame.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-37
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 5-16-98
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-10-71
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-1-5
9 of 10 winners (last 8) carried between 8-11 and 9-6.
Top Weight: 096920640760 (0-2-12)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 101 or more: 1-4-34
Horses rated 91 to 100: 9-21-152
Horses rated 90 or less: 0-5-25
In past 6 years all 6 winners and 17 of 24 places were filled by horses officially rated between 94 and 101.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that year
6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time out (all 4 exceptions were unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)
8 of 10 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 95+ last time
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 5 furlongs (1 exception 2nd over 5F on previous start, other exception not run over 5F)
8 of 10 winners had won over 6 furlongs
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 12+ runners in it
6 of 8 British-trained winners had won at class 2 level or above (one exception placed in a listed race over this CD)
6 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 race
7 of 8 British-trained winners had last start at Ripon, Haydock or Sandown

Other Races
5 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 69008
4 of 10 winners ran in Al Rayan H'cap at Newmarket, finishing 0060
3 of 10 winners ran in Stewards Cup, finishing 065 (1 ran in Stewards Sprint, finishing 1st)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Dash, finishing 964
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 84
2 of 10 winners ran in the Northern Sprint Cup, finishing 08
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockingham handicap, finishing 05
2 of 10 winners ran in the Skybet Dash, finishing 80
2 of 10 winners ran in the Gosford Sprint Cup, finishing 51
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Wentworth Stakes, finishing 43

Trainers
Kevin Ryan (2-4-22) won the race with Halmahera in 02, 03 & 04 and he also saddled both the 2nd & 4th in 2009 & 2010 and the 5th in 2011.
Stuart Williams (1-1-2) saddled Hogmaneigh to finish 3rd in 2006 & win it in 2008.
David O’Meara (1-0-1), David Barron (1-0-4) & Tim Etherington (1-0-4) have all trained the winner once in the past 6 years.
Tim Easterby (0-2-8) has saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Jamie Osbourne (0-1-1), Richard Guest (0-1-1) & Linda Perratt (0-1-1) have all seen their one representative since 2003 get placed.
Dandy Nicholls (0-2-29) has a poor record in this since 2003, having found just 2 places from 29 runners.

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were held up in midfield or rear
The race is usually run at a fierce gallop and horses that are played late often do best.

Draw (excluding 2006 when run at York)
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 2-7-63
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-11-63
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 5-9-66
Horses drawn 13 or higher have won 8 of last 10 runnings at Doncaster.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 11/1 and 20/1
Favourites (1-1-13) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 or older
· Carrying 8-11 to 9-6
· Officially rated 94 to 101
· Run at least 3 times in 2013
· Finished in first 4 last time (or unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)
· Posted an RPR of 95+ last time
· Ran in last 35 days in a class 3 or higher
· Won at class 2 level or higher
· Won over 5F and 6F
· Won a handicap with 14+ runners
· Previously contested a class 1 sprint
· Ran in the Great St Wilfrid and/or Stewards Cup/Sprint
· Ran in Al Rayan H’cap, Scottish Stewards Cup and/or Epsom Dash
· Drawn in 13 or higher
· Hold-up horses favoured
· Trained by Kevin Ryan, Stuart Williams or David O’Meara
· Priced between 11/1 and 20/1