FILLIES MILE TRENDS 2013

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The Shadwell Fillies’ Mile, which used to take place at Ascot, will be run at Newmarket on Friday 27th September. A group 1 run over a mile for 2yo fillies, it gives the winner automatic qualification to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 2yo fillies

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.8 to 11.4
2 of 10 winners were sired by Sadler's Wells
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) were sired by Dynaformer
2 of 10 winners were by or out of a mare by Selkirk
2 of 10 winners were by or out of a mare by Danehill

Recent Form
10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in June, July or August
8 of 10 winners won last time out (both exceptions were 2nd in a group race)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 104+ last time (other won maiden on previous start)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 45 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F (exceptions: 2nd in Group 1 over 7F and 2nd in group 2 over a mile)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had yet not run in pattern company & other was 2nd in group 2)
8 of 10 winners had never finished outside the first 3
6 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (2 exceptions were having first course start)

Other Races
May Hill Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 1311111 (6-0-7)
Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 2331811 (3-2-7)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Wonderfully): 2 (0-1-1)
Albany Stakes winner (Kiyoshi): 2 (0-1-1)
Flame Of Tara Stakes winner (Avenue Gabriel): 3 (0-1-1)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Rizeena): 3 (0-0-1)
32Red Casino EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Sound Reflection): 535 (0-0-3)
7 of 10 winners ran in the May Hill last time, finishing 1112111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sweet Solera, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Princess Margaret Stakes, finishing 33

Trainers
Mahmood Al Zarooni (2-0-2) & Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-2) have trained the last 3 winners for Godolphin. Both Bin Suroor and Charlie Appleby (who has taken over from Al Zarooni) have entries in the race.
Aidan O’Brien (1-2-6) trained the winner in 2007 and seen 3 of his 6 runners make the frame.
Clive Brittain (1-0-7) trained Hibaayeb to win in 2009.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
Since 2003 only one horse priced above 5/1 has won this, Hibaayeb at 8/1 in 2009.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.96.


Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Made debut in June, July or August
· Had at least 2 career starts
· Won last time out, posting highest RPR of 104+
· Ran in last 45 days
· Won over 7F or 1M
· Won a listed or group race
· Previously won at Newmarket (or having first course start)
· Won the May Hill and/or Sweet Solera Stakes
· Godolphin runners do well
· Priced 5/1 or shorter