The Betfred Monetīs Garden Old Roan Chase is a grade 2 handicap chase run over 2M 4F. The Ryanair and Melling Chases have proven the best guides to this race.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 renewals:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-4
6yo: 1-0-5
7yo: 1-1-13
8yo: 1-5-16
9yo: 2-2-12
10yo: 2-1-10
11yo+: 2-1-5
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-7-38
Horses aged 9 to 12: 6-4-27
The only 2 winners aged younger than 8 were grade 1 chase winners in past 12 months.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 5-8-27
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 4-3-38
7 of 9 winners carried 10-10 or more.
Top Weight: 251241432 (2-2-9)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 154 or higher: 6-8-31
Horses rated 153 or lower: 3-3-34
Horses officially rated 151 or higher have won the last 7 runnings.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 9 winners had been off the track for over 6 months
7 of 9 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start
9 of 9 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (7 had run in 5 or fewer)
8 of 9 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase (exception was Monet's Garden in 2010, had won 2 handicap chases - this race twice before)
8 of 9 winners (last 8) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
9 of 9 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
7 of 9 winners (last 7) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase in previous 12 months
9 of 9 winners had won over 2M 4F or further
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: 512411 (3-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from Melling Chase: 5142432 (1-2-7)
Scotty Brand H'cap Chase winner (Conquisto): 4 (0-0-1)
Byrne Group Plate Chase winner (Carrickboy): 5 (0-0-1)
3 of 9 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 132
2 of 9 winners ran in Amlin Chase 1965, finishing 6F
2 of 9 winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing 6P
2 of 9 winners ran in Ascot Chase, finishing 11 (both Monet's Garden)
8 of 9 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 Ryanair, 1 Jewson Novice Chase, 1 Gold Cup, 1 Queen Mother, 1 Grand Annual & 1 Byrne Group Plate)
5 of 9 winners ran at that year's Aintree National meeting (3 Melling chase, 1 Topham & 1 Grand National)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (1-3-12) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 12 runners, however he has been responsible for the favourite 6 times in past 9 years.
Philip Hobbs (1-2-4) has gained a win and 2 places from 4 runners.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-3) has saddled 1 win and 1 place from 3 runners.
Peter Bowen (0-2-3) has seen his 3 runners finish 2nd-3rd-2nd.
Racing Tactics
5 of 9 winners led from the second fence
Five winners made almost all, while 2 others race prominently.
Price
6 of 9 winners went off 4/1 or shorter, while the other 3 went off between 8/1 & 14/1.
Favourites (2-2-11) gained 2 wins & 2 places from 11 runners, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 7 runnings you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 8 or older
· Carrying 10-10 or more
· Officially rated 151 or higher
· Having first run this season
· Posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start
· Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 1)
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won a grade 1 or 2 chase in past 12 months
· Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
· Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival (ideally Ryanair)
· Finished in first 3 in Melling Chase last time
· Trained by Philip Hobbs, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Peter Bowen
· Likes to lead or race prominently.
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