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    Info OLD ROAN CHASE TRENDS 2013

    The Betfred Monetīs Garden Old Roan Chase is a grade 2 handicap chase run over 2M 4F. The Ryanair and Melling Chases have proven the best guides to this race.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 renewals:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-1-4


    6yo: 1-0-5


    7yo: 1-1-13


    8yo: 1-5-16


    9yo: 2-2-12


    10yo: 2-1-10


    11yo+: 2-1-5


    Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-7-38


    Horses aged 9 to 12: 6-4-27


    The only 2 winners aged younger than 8 were grade 1 chase winners in past 12 months.





    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 5-8-27


    Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 4-3-38


    7 of 9 winners carried 10-10 or more.


    Top Weight: 251241432 (2-2-9)





    Official Ratings


    Horses rated 154 or higher: 6-8-31


    Horses rated 153 or lower: 3-3-34


    Horses officially rated 151 or higher have won the last 7 runnings.





    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 9 winners had been off the track for over 6 months


    7 of 9 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start


    9 of 9 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (7 had run in 5 or fewer)


    8 of 9 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase (exception was Monet's Garden in 2010, had won 2 handicap chases - this race twice before)


    8 of 9 winners (last 8) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase


    9 of 9 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase


    7 of 9 winners (last 7) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase in previous 12 months


    9 of 9 winners had won over 2M 4F or further





    Other Races


    Highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: 512411 (3-1-6)


    Highest placed finisher from Melling Chase: 5142432 (1-2-7)


    Scotty Brand H'cap Chase winner (Conquisto): 4 (0-0-1)


    Byrne Group Plate Chase winner (Carrickboy): 5 (0-0-1)


    3 of 9 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 132


    2 of 9 winners ran in Amlin Chase 1965, finishing 6F


    2 of 9 winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing 6P


    2 of 9 winners ran in Ascot Chase, finishing 11 (both Monet's Garden)


    8 of 9 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 Ryanair, 1 Jewson Novice Chase, 1 Gold Cup, 1 Queen Mother, 1 Grand Annual & 1 Byrne Group Plate)


    5 of 9 winners ran at that year's Aintree National meeting (3 Melling chase, 1 Topham & 1 Grand National)





    Trainers


    Paul Nicholls (1-3-12) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 12 runners, however he has been responsible for the favourite 6 times in past 9 years.


    Philip Hobbs (1-2-4) has gained a win and 2 places from 4 runners.


    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-3) has saddled 1 win and 1 place from 3 runners.


    Peter Bowen (0-2-3) has seen his 3 runners finish 2nd-3rd-2nd.





    Racing Tactics


    5 of 9 winners led from the second fence


    Five winners made almost all, while 2 others race prominently.





    Price


    6 of 9 winners went off 4/1 or shorter, while the other 3 went off between 8/1 & 14/1.


    Favourites (2-2-11) gained 2 wins & 2 places from 11 runners, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.





    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 7 runnings you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 8 or older
    · Carrying 10-10 or more
    · Officially rated 151 or higher
    · Having first run this season
    · Posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start
    · Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 1)
    · Won over 2M 4F+
    · Won a grade 1 or 2 chase in past 12 months
    · Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
    · Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival (ideally Ryanair)
    · Finished in first 3 in Melling Chase last time
    · Trained by Philip Hobbs, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Peter Bowen
    · Likes to lead or race prominently.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd October 2013)  


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