BREEDERS' CUP MILE TRENDS 2013

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Wise Dan, who was an impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year, looks likely to be the one to beat in this again. This is a race that the French have done particularly well in, winning 5 of the last 11, with the other 6 going to the home team.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-4-24
4yo: 4-9-45
5yo: 2-4-34
6yo+: 2-3-18
No very strong stat on the ages of winners.
American-trained 3yos (0-1-7) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 7 runners.

Gender
Fillies/mares (4-3-13) have a fine record in this race, gaining 4 wins and 3 places from just 13 runners, though these stats are skewed by the fact that Goldikova has won 3 runnings. French trained females have a record of 4-3-9.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 won)
8 of 10 winners posted RPR of 116+ last time (2 others posted RPR's of 111 & 113 last time)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had last run 20 to 50 days ago
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times that year
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice that year
10 of 10 winners had won over a mile
10 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 or 2
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won grade/group 1
10 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1 that year
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 that season
The 10 winners had collectively had 52 prior starts the season they won this, they finished in first 3 in 44 of those 52 starts

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Wise Dan): 382113 (2-3-6)
Maker's 46 Mile winner (Wise Dan): 11120 (3-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Maker's Mark Mile: 2111250 (3-2-7)
Woodbine Mile winner (Wise Dan): 242521 (1-3-6)
Bernard Baruch Handicap winner (Silver Max): 510302 (1-2-6)
Fourstardave H'cap winner (Wise Dan): 023061 (1-2-6)
Shadwell Turf Mile winner (Silver Max): 8078094241 (1-1-10)
Red Bank Stakes winner (Za Approval): 19 (1-0-2)
Firecracker Handicap winner (Wise Dan): 179 (1-0-3)
Del Mar Mile winner (Obviously): 2373 (0-3-4)
Eddie Read Stakes winner (Jeranimo): 8023 (0-2-4)
City Of Hope Stakes winner (No Jet Lag): 7682073 (0-2-7)
American Handicap winner (Obviously): 3 (0-1-1)
Sir Beaufort Stakes winner (Silentio): 365 (0-1-3)
Shoemaker's Mile winner (Obviously): 2006 (0-1-4)
QEII winner (Olympic Glory): 4 (0-0-1)
3 of 4 European-trained winners ran in Prix Jacques Le Marois, finishing 112
4 of 6 North American-trained winners ran in Maker's 46 Mile, finishing 1114
3 of 6 North American-trained winners (last 3) ran in Woodbine Mile, finishing 271
2 of 6 North American-trained winners ran in Shoemakers BC Mile, finishing 26
2 of 6 North American-trained winners ran in Frank E Kilroe Mile, finishing 21
2 of 6 North American-trained winners ran in Shadwell Turf Mile, finishing 41
Goldikova won the Prix Rothschild en route to win this 3 years in a row

Trainers
North American-trained runners: 6-15-83
French-trained runners: 4-3-14
Irish-trained runners: 0-2-10
British-trained runners: 0-0-14
Charles Lopresti (1-1-2) trained runner-up in 2011 and won it with Wise Dan last year.
Dale Romans (1-0-2) trained Colour Vision to cause a shock by winning this in 2011.
Aidan O’Brien (0-2-9) has yet to win this but has had 2 placed finishers from last 9 runners.
Mike Mitchell (0-1-1) trained Obviously to finish 3rd last year and is entered again.
Christophe Clement (0-1-2) and John Sadler (0-1-3) have both saddled a placed finisher in past 5 years.

Price
No strong trend on the prices with winner’s SP ranging from 6/4 to 50/1.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10 (all Goldikova), giving a level stakes loss of 1.62.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French fillies/mares do well
- Had last run 20 to 50 days ago
- Finished in the first 3 last time (posting RPR of 116+)
- Run 4 to 6 times this year, winning at least twice
- Finished in first 3 on all starts in 2013
- Won a grade/group 1 or 2 over a mile in 2013
- Finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1 in 2013
- Finished in first 2 in Prix Jacques Le Marois
- First 3 in Frank E Kilroe, Maker’s 46 Mile, Shadwell Turf Mile and/or Woodbine Mile
- Trained in France or by Charles Lopresti.