MORGIANA HURDLE TRENDS 2013

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The StanJames.com Morgiana Hurdle is a 2 mile grade 1 hurdle that takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 17th November. It has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times, including Limestone Lad, Brace Inca, Hardy Eustace, Solwhit and last year, Hurricane Fly, who won it last year but suffered his only defeat on Irish soil in this race in 2009.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-2
5yo: 3-1-11
6yo: 2-3-14
7yo: 3-1-13
8yo: 1-0-4
9yo: 0-0-2
10yo: 0-0-1
11yo+: 1-0-2
8 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7, the two exceptions were Hardy Eustace and Hurricane Fly, who had both previously won the Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Hurdles in their career.
7 of 8 winners aged 5 to 7 had either won the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle or finished in the first 4 in the Punchestown Champion hurdle that year.

Gender
Record of mares: 63224 (0-1-5)
The 5 mares to run in the race went off at prices of 66/1, 5/1, 7/2, 5/2 & 50/1.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 in last hurdles start (both exceptions unplaced in a grade 1 over 2m4f-3m)
8 of 10 winners had previously posted an RPR of 160+ (last 4 winners did so last time out)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had not run over hurdles for over 150 days (2 exceptions ran in Tipperary Hurdle last time)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race over 2 miles
9 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 a grade 1 over this CD)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Hurricane Fly): 2331 (1-1-4)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurriane Fly): 53211 (2-0-5)
WKD Hurdle winner (Jezki): 313 (1-0-3)
Leopardstown Istabraq Festival Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 531 (1-0-3)
Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): 33 (0-1-2)
Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 3 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, finishing 252131
4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F912
4 of 10 winners ran in Istabraq Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown, finishing 2214
4 of 10 winners ran in Champion Hurdle, finishing 3643
2 of 10 winners ran in Tipperary Hurdle last time, finishing 23
7 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (4 Champion Hurdle, 1 World Hurdle, 1 Supreme & 1 County Hurdle)

Punchestown Festival
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 111 (3-0-3)
Herald Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): 11433 (2-0-5)
Record of horses that won or placed in Punchestown Champion Hurdle: 13131111 (6-0-8)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 2411221
2 of 10 winners ran in Herald Champion Novice Hurdle finishing 11
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 at that year's Punchestown Festival

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-0-4) has won the last 2 renewals of the Morgiana.
Michael Bowe (0-0-1) has seen his one runner in past 10 year finish unplaced, though his father, James, won this 3 times around the turn of the century with the great Limestone Lad.
Jessica Harrington (0-0-4) has seen all 4 of her runners finish unplaced, all 4 went off shorter than 6/1, including 2 favourites.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 9/2 or lower
Hardy Eustace 14/1 (‘08) and Harchibald 10/1 (‘04) were the two surprise results.
Favourites (5-0-10) have won 5 of last 10 renewals but show a small level stakes loss of 0.20.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Gelding
- Finished in the first 3 in a graded hurdle last time out
- Has posted an RPR of 160+ over hurdles (ideally did so last time)
- Won a 2M grade 1 hurdle
- Course winner
- Finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
- Ran at the 2013 Punchestown Festival
- First 2 in Punchestown Champion Novice or Champion Hurdle
- Trained by Willie Mullins
- From first 3 in the betting.