ROYAL BOND NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2013

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The Bar One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle is the first of three Grade 1 races which take place on the Fairyhouse card on Sunday, 1st December. Always a quality contest, the winner usually goes towards the top of either the Supreme Novices’ or Ballymore Properties Hurdle betting for the next year’s Cheltenham Festival. Previous winners include subsequent Champion Hurdlers Istabraq, Hardy Eustace & Hurricane Fly and Champion Chase winners Moscow Flyer and Newmill.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-4-23
5yo: 3-10-35
6yo: 1-1-19
7yo+: 0-1-3
4 & 5yos have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, with 4yos holding the best individual record.
In the race’s history only 2 winners were aged 6+, both were unbeaten over hurdles and had won the Irish Champion Bumper.

Gender
Mares (0-1-12) have gained just 1 place from 12 runners in past 10 runnings. The last two successful mares of this, had both won the grade 1 Irish Champion Bumper.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out (both exceptions were in 2nd in a graded hurdle on last start)
9 of 10 winners ran in the last 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 1 to 3 hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 4 or 5 hurdles)
10 of 10 winners had won at least once over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had contested a graded hurdle or bumper (3 of 4 others unbeaten over hurdles)
5 of 10 winners were unbeaten over hurdles (4 of 5 exceptions finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths
6 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 exceptions had won a listed or group race on the flat)

Other Races
For Auction Hurdle winner (Minella Foru): 512295 (1-2-6)
Buy Your 2014 Annual Badge Maiden Hurdle winner (Somethingwonderful): 03825 (0-2-5)
EBF Lough Construction Ltd. Mares Novice Hurdle winner (Gambling Girl): 646 (0-0-3)
Since 2000 record of highest placed finisher from Punchestown Champion Bumper: 111223162 (4-4-9)
2 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Fishery Lane Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the For Auction Novice Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers
Noel Meade (3-3-13) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings and saddled the 3rd in ‘06 & ‘10 and 2nd in ’08 and had no runner in ’09, ’11 or ‘12.
Willie Mullins (3-2-15) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners & had no runner in 2009. The last 2 winners had come from France.
Jessica Harrington (2-2-4) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from 4 runners since 2003.
Philip Fenton (1-1-2) has seen his two runners finish 1st and 2nd.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or lower
The last 10 winners all came from first 4 in the betting with 10/1 being the longest priced winner.
Favourites (4-5-10) have won 4 of last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 1.61.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Gelding aged 4 or 5 (especially 4yos)
- Run 1 to 3 times over hurdles (winning at least once)
- Won last time out (or 2nd in a graded hurdle)
- Had last run in the past 50 days
- Won a bumper or a group/listed race on flat
- Won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths
- Ran in a graded bumper/hurdle or unbeaten in completed hurdle starts
- Ran well in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown
- Trained by Noel Meade, Willie Mullins, Jessica Harrington or Philip Fenton
- Priced 7/1 or shorter.