DRINMORE NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2013

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The Bar One Racing Drinmore Novice Chase takes the place at Fairyhouse on Sunday 1st December as part of a top quality national hunt card featuring three grade 1’s. It is run over 2M 4F and is the first grade 1 novice chase of the season & always offers clues to the big novice chases at Leopardstown over Christmas.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-5
6yo: 5-6-36
7yo: 4-5-24
8yo: 0-2-6
9yo+: 0-1-4
Horses aged 6 or 7 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, including the last 7.
Since the inaugural running in 1994, only 2 of the 19 winners were not aged 6 or 7 and both those 2 had previously finished 2nd in a grade 1 hurdle.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners won last time out
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR over fences last time out
7 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 141+ last time
8 of 10 winners had last start at Galway, Navan or Punchestown
9 of 10 winners had run since 23rd October
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 or 2 chases prior to this (2 exceptions had run in 3 and 4)
10 of 10 winners finished in first 2 on all completed chase starts that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
5 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (3 exception finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle & other 2 were unbeaten in completed hurdles starts)
9 of 10 winners had had 3 to 6 hurdles starts
5 of 10 winners had won at Fairyhouse (2 exceptions finished 2nd on all course starts & other 3 were having first course start)

Other Races
W.B.Gavin Beginners Chase winner (Don Cossack): 321 (1-2-3)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Art Of Logistics): 1 (1-0-1)
Paddy Power We Pay Up To 1million Euro EBF Novice Chase winner (Sizing Rio): 815 (1-0-3)
Ballybrit Novice Chase winner (Shrapnel): 6F3 (0-1-3)
Porter & Co Beginners chase winner (Gold Bullet): D Royal 4 (0-0-1)
Naas Annual Membership Beginners Chase winner (Road To Riches): 3 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners had won a 2M 4F Punchestown chase in Oct/Nov
2 of 10 winners ran in a Cork chase over 2M 4F Nov, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won a Navan EBF Beginners Chase over 2M4F in November
3 of 10 winners ran in that year's Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing 361
2 of 10 winners ran in Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle, finishing 63
2 of 10 winners ran in Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Nov Hurdle, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in grade 1 Punchestown World Series Hurdle, finishing 77
5 of 10 winners had run in a grade 1 hurdle at that year's Punchestown Festival

Trainers
Noel Meade (2-3-9) has won the race 3 times since 2001.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-1) won the race with Jessies Dream in 2010 while Dessie Hughes (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame in past 10 years and John Kiely’s (0-1-1) one runner was placed in 2010.

Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
No winner has gone off higher than 6/1 in the last 10 years.
The favourite (4-0-11) has won 4 of last 10 and shows a level stakes profit of 0.05.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 or 7
- Had last run after 23/10/13
- Won last time out (ideally at Navan, Galway or Punchestown)
- Posted highest chase RPR last time
- Previously run in 1 or 2 chases
- Finished in first 2 in all completed chase starts this season
- Won a chase at Cork, Navan or Punchestown in Oct/Nov
- Won over at least 2M 4F
- Run in 3 to 6 hurdles races
- Won a graded race over hurdles
- Won or placed at Fairyhouse (or having first course start)
- Ran in Deloitte, Neptune Investments or Cathal Ryan Memorial Novice Hurdle in 2013
- Ran in a grade 1 hurdle at the 2013 Punchestown Festival
- Trained by Noel Meade or Gordon Elliot
- From the first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1)