BECHER CHASE TRENDS 2013

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The Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, which takes place on Saturday 7th December, is a 3M 2F listed contest run over the Grand National fences. Twice since 2000, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Grand National (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch in a later season).





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-2
6yo: 0-2-7
7yo: 1-2-16
8yo: 2-5-22
9yo: 3-7-43
10yo: 2-2-33
11yo: 0-6-19
12yo+: 2-0-14
7 of 10 winners were aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket accounted for 66.5% of total runners.
The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2003 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.
Only winner aged over 10 was Hello Bud in 2010 & 2012. Prior to his first win the race, he had finished 5th in previous season’s Becher Chase and also that year's Grand National.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-11-71
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 5-13-84
There are no very strong trends on the weights.
Top Weight: F541FP155P (2-1-10)
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-27
Horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-8

Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 to 157: 3-5-19
Horses rated 127 to 142: 5-15-104
Horses rated 112 to 126: 2-5-33
The last 8 winners were racing off marks between 130 to 148.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 8 handicap chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 exceptions were Hello Bud who won it in 2010 & 2012)
6 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls & other was Hello Bud winning it for second time)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

Other Races
4 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing F5B7
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Becher Chase, finishing 5U
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase in December, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the previous year's Troytown, finishing 764
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Handicap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase, finishing 02
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8P
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 115

Racing Style
8 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders throughout

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-5-16) has trained the winner three times in the past 9 years and had the runner-up in 4 of the other 6.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-0-9) saddled Hello Bud to win it in 2010 & 2012.
Alan King (1-0-3) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) have each won the race once in the past 10 years.
Peter Bowen (0-3-13) has saddled 3 places in past 10 years.
Venetia Williams (0-1-1), Tom George (0-1-2), Sue Smith (0-1-4) & David Pipe (0-1-5) have each trained one placed finisher since 2003.
Irish based trainers (3-2-26) have a good recent record, having won it 3 times in last 8 years.

Price
No strong trends on prices, though 7 of the last 10 winners have gone off at 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won 2 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 3.50.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 8 to 10
- Officially rated 130 to 148
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
- Run at least 13 times over fences
- Run in 10+ handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
- Previous form over the National fences is a positive
- Ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, Classic Chase and/or Grand National
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies.