CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014
The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 11th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horses Grand National credentials.
Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2000:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 1-8-15
8yo: 3-8-24
9yo: 3-3-41
10yo: 1-1-23
11yo: 1-1-15
12yo+: 1-1-15
No strong trend on ages, though all 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred, 2 of 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-12-80
French bred: 2-6-30
GB bred: 1-4-24
Other: 0-0-2
Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 58.8% of the total runners.
French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 2-6-18 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-12.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-9-68
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-13-68
In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with 5 of last 6 winners and 10 of the 18 placed finishers in past 6 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.
Top weight: 44FPB0P3615 (1-2-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 141 or higher: 1-4-23
Horses rated 129 to 140: 8-11-69
Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-7-44
In past 6 runnings, the trend has been towards higher rated runners:
Horses rated 133 or higher: 5-7-39
Horses rated 132 or lower: 1-5-41
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)
10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 131+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences
9 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases
7 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase
7 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)
Other Races
Newcastle Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 1 (1-0-1)
Kim Muir Challenge Cup winner (Same Difference): 8 (0-0-1)
Walters UK Ltd Handicap Chase winner (Relax): P (0-0-1)
Lincolnshire National winner (Merlin's Wish): P (0-0-1)
Devon Marathon Handicap Chase winner (Major Malarkey): FP (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase, finishing 4P4
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing P02
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing U0
2 of 10 winners ran in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P
2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in Tim Molony Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing P2
Trainers
Alan King (2-2-7) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 4 and saddled runner-up last year.
Venetia Williams (1-3-9) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 9 runners.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-12) has gained a win & 2 places from 12 runners since 2001.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-1) trained Hey Big Spender to win this in 2012.
Ian Williams (0-1-1) has seen his 2 runners since 2000 both finish 2nd.
Price
No very strong trend on the prices, though 3 of the last 4 winners have gone off at double figures prices.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won just one running since 2001, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger
- Carrying 10-9 or more
- Officially rated 133 or higher
- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days
- Posted an RPR of 131+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
- Previously won at least twice over fences
- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
- Previously contested a graded chase (or rated lower than 130)
- Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National
- Finished in first 4 in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase
- Trained by Alan King, N Twiston-Davies, C Tizzard or Ian Williams.
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