IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 26th January. The race has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times including Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Istabraq and Hurricane Fly, who will be looking to win this for fourth straight year. The two key races, which provide pointers for this, are the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and Ryanair Hurdle.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 0-1-9
6yo: 4-3-13
7yo: 1-4-13
8yo: 2-2-14
9yo: 1-2-6
10yo+: 2-1-10
6yos have the best individual record having won 5 of the last 12 renewals and were not represented in 5 of the other 7 runnings since 2002.
4 of 5 winners 8+ had previously won the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle (other was 3rd in previous season’s Champion Hurdle)

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 160+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season (exception was making seasonal debut but had won previous year's race)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception was 2nd in a grade 1 while other won the grade 3 Greatwood handicap hurdle and was having his first run at grade 1 level)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (1 exception was having his first course start while other was placed on both previous runs here)
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Hurricane Fly): 222211 (2-4-6)
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 3131111 (5-1-7)
Ryanair Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 112341141 (5-1-9)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 1851231 (3-1-7)
Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 3721 (1-1-4)
Hatton's Grace winner (Jezki): 42P1 (1-1-4)
WKD Hurdle winner (Jezki): 18P (1-0-3)
Previous season Royal Bond winner (Jezki): 82 (0-1-2)
Evening Herald Champ Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): 28 (0-1-2)
Tipperary Hurdle winner (Captain Cee Bee): 44 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair Hurdle last time, finishing 113111
6 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 131111
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (4 Champion Hurdle & 1 Neptune)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 3111
4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 2711
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F21
3 of 10 winners had run in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 321

Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-1-9) saddled Hurricane Fly to win this for past 3 years.
Jessica Harrington (1-3-6) has gained a win and 3 places from her 6 runners since 2004.
Dessie Hughes (1-1-5) trained Hardy Eustace to gain a win, a 2nd and a 3rd from 5 runs in this.

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 6) were priced 10/3 or shorter
This is certainly not a race for longshots with 8/1 and 9/1 the two long priced winners since 2004.
Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.82.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 or a previous Champion Hurdle winner
- Finished in the first 3 last time (posting RPR of 160+)
- Run 2 or 3 times this season
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
- Previously won at Leopardstown
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at 2013 Cheltenham Festival
- Finished in first 3 in 2013 Irish Champion, Morgiana and/or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle
- Won the Ryanair and/or Punchestown Champ Hurdle
- Priced 10/3 or shorter (favourite has a strong record