SKY BET CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Listed Sky Bet Handicap Chase (formerly the Great Yorkshire) is run over 3 miles for 5yos and upwards and takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 25th January. It is generally won by less exposed chasers who are proven over the 3 mile trip. The race was held at Southwell in 2006 & 2007 and was abandoned in 2010, 2011 & 2013.






Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2001-2012):




Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-7
7yo: 3-2-12
8yo: 2-5-31
9yo: 3-5-44
10yo: 1-7-24
11yo+: 0-3-22
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 6-7-50.
Horses aged 9+ have a combined record of 4-15-90.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses allotted 10-12 or more: 5-12-78
Horses allotted 10-11 or less: 5-10-62
Not a whole lot to go on, though 5 of last 6 winners carried 10-12 or more.
Top Weight: P2PFF9P4P0P1 (1-2-12)
Since 2000 the record of horses carrying a 6lb penalty: 3161 (2-1-4)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or over: 1-8-41
Horses rated 128 to 136: 5-4-52
Horses rated 127 or below: 4-10-49
The last 6 winners have been rated 128 or higher (5 of 6 rated 128 to 136)

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed start (2 of 3 exceptions were unplaced in grade 3 handicaps)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 129+ in last 2 completed starts
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 10 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 6 handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 8 & 10)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were either 1st or 2nd season chasers
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was a maiden who had been runner-up over 4M 1F and other was having their first try over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track

Other Races
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) contested a class 2 or higher chase at either Cheltenham November meeting or Cheltenham New Year meeting

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-0-8) has won 2 of the last 6 renewals of this.
Keith Reveley (0-2-3), Gary Moore (0-2-4), Nicky Henderson (0-2-5), Venetia Williams (0-2-9) & Sue Smith (0-2-11) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers in last 10 runnings.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 12/1
Recent trend has been towards horses prominent in the betting, with 7 of the last 9 winners going off at single-figures odds and coming from the first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (2-1-12) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 9
- Finished in the first 2 last time in the past 35 days
- Posted an RPR of 129+ in last 2 completed chase starts
- Horses carrying 10-12 or more have fared better recently
- Officially rated between 128 and 136
- Run in no more than 6 handicap chases
- 1st or 2nd season chaser
- Won over at least 3 miles
- Won at a left-handed track
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Keith Reveley or Gary Moore
- Priced between 4/1 to 12/1.