LEOPARDSTOWN HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2014

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LEOPARDSTOWN HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2014




The Leopardstown Handicap Chase takes place on 25th January as part of the supporting card to the Boylesports.com Handicap Hurdle. It was formerly run over 3M but the distance was shortened to 2M 5F in 2009.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-2
7yo: 1-5-18
8yo: 1-9-43
9yo: 6-4-35
10yo: 2-3-32
11yo+: 0-1-12
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were aged 9 or 10
The two winners aged younger than 9 had already performed well in big handicap chases, one had won that’s season’s Troytown, while the other had finished 2nd in the previous year’s Irish National.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-6-40
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 5-17-102
Horses carrying 10-13+ have won 5 of the last 10 (including 4 of the last 7), from approximately 28.2% of the total runners.
Top weight: 6P41159106 (3-0-10)
Horses carrying a penalty: P76 (0-0-3)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 135 or higher: 5-6-41
Horses rated 134 or lower: 5-17-101
Horses officially rated 135+ have won 5 of last 10 from less than 28% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start (2 exception were 8th in a listed Cheltenham h'cap chase & 9th in Paddy Power Handicap Chase here)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since 1st September
7 of 10 winners had run on the flat, over hurdles or in a P2P since 1st September
6 of 10 winners had won or placed at Leopardstown (3 exceptions having first course start)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 Novice Chase here
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F or further
10 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 18 chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 8 or fewer h'cap chases (exception had run in 10)
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 others had won 3 or 4)
9 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (exception was a novice)
8 of 10 winners had contested a grade 1, 2 or 3 chase (2 exception had won Troytown or Portertown h'cap chases)
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a chase worth 22K+ (1 exception had only run in a chase worth 18K, which he won)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Troytown: 133P4200 (1-3-8)
Weatherbys Ireland GSB Handicap Chase winner (Daring Article): 21 (1-1-2)
Tim Duggan Memorial H'cap Chase winner (Make A Track): 717 (1-0-3)
Race That Stops A County "Thyestes Jan 23rd 2014" Chase winner (Buckers Bridge): 6 (0-0-1)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Texas Jack): 9 (0-0-1)
Racing Post All You Need For Irish Racing H'cap Chase winner (King Vuvuzeula): 8 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Troytown, finishing 10
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase, finishing B9
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing U0
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish National, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Boylesports Bet On Your Mobile Novice Chase, finishing 4F

Trainers
Dessie Hughes (2-0-12) has trained 2 of the last 5 winners of this race.
Arthur Moore (1-4-13) has gained 2 wins and 5 places from his 17 runners in this since 2002. His two winners both ran in that’s season’s Troytown.
Ted Walsh (1-1-3) & Charlie Swan (1-1-6) have both gained 1 win & 1 place since 2004.
Terence O’Brien (1-0-2) trained Farrells Fancy to win this last year.
Eddie O’Grady (0-2-4) & Tony Martin (0-2-4) both gained 2 places from 4 runners in last 10 years.
Paul Nolan (0-1-3) & Jessica Harrington (0-1-3) have both saddled the runner-up in past 3 years.
Noel Meade (0-0-8) & Willie Mullins (0-1-8) has both done poorly in this, seeing just 1 of their collective 16 runners make the places.

Racing Style
3 of 10 winners made all
4 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders
3 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or towards rear
In general you want to be on a horse that likes to race close to the pace in this race. Since the trip was reduced to 2M 5F, all 5 winners led or raced prominently.

Price
No very strong trend on the prices as 7 of last 10 winners (including last 4) were priced between 13/2 & 14/1.
Favourites (2-5-14) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 9 or 10 (or 1st or 2nd in a grade A h’cap chase in past 12 months)
- Carrying 10-13 or more (top weight does well)
- Officially rated 135 or higher
- Finished in the first 5 last time out in past 50 days
- Run 2 to 5 times since 1st September 2013
- Run on the flat, in a point to point or over hurdles this season
- Previously won or placed at Leopardstown (or first course start)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown (ideally PJ Moriarty)
- Second or third season chaser
- Run 6 to 18 times over fences
- Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- Won or placed in a chase worth 22K+
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Dessie Hughes or Arthur Moore.