saturday 25/1/2014 - daily thread

[ganjaman2]

Saturday 25th January


2:15 Leopardstown – Killiney Novice Chase


This looks a really good race, but the one I fancy is DJAKADAM. As a hurdler I thought he would make a cracking chaser and he did not let me down on his chase debut, where he stayed on well to win at Leopardstown. He was a decent juvenile hurdler and should rate much higher over fences. The ground will be soft, which suits him fine and the fact that he receives eight pounds from all his opponents should make him hard to beat. Road To Riches is a decent h0rse though and could trouble the selection, but he has always shown his best form leading up to Christmas and although this trip will suit him better than the two miles he ran over last time, I still expect Djakadam to come out on top.








2:25 Cheltenham – Argento Chase


ROCKY CREEK is one of my favourite h0rses and will have the soft ground that he requires. He is very much on the up and in my opinion the only reason he failed to win the Hennessy was down to the ground being quicker than ideal. He is held in high regard at Paul Nicholls yard and is the one to beat. As a novice he showed top class form, including beating Houblon des Obeaux at level weights (receives one pound here). He is a thorough stayer also, which will be needed in the soft conditions and I expect the Cheltenham hill to suit him. He also has a great record in the first two months of the year, having won all four starts. My only fear is that this race has a history of shock results and if there was to be a shock The Giant Bolster could be the one. He has finished second in a Gold Cup and won easily on this card in 2012. He needs to bounce back, but receives weight from all the others and is the one I fear most.






3:00 Cheltenham – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle


RED SHERLOCK may not have beaten much so far over hurdles, but he has done it very easily. The winner of all three starts in bumpers, including at Cheltenham in November, he is quickly developing into a very decent hurdler. He receives weight from his main rivals in this and although Rathvinden is very much respected, he fell last time out and that may have affected his confidence, so I am confident of victory.








3:15 Doncaster – Sky Bet Chase


There is a very competitive look to this and several can be fancied. The Druid’s Nephew ran very well last time out and the form has been franked with the third and fourth going on to finish first and second in the Welsh National. He has some good form to his name as a novice including finishing a close second to Hadrian’s Approach at Ascot with Rolling Aces back in third. A handicap mark of just 135 looks good and he should be competitive in this, so looks a good each-way option. I am going to take a chance of ACCORDING TO TREV though who looks well handicapped off a mark of 133. At the start of the season he really impressed with two wins at Southwell and as well as having now had five runs over fences, he has experience in points, so should be up to this challenge. He usually jumps well and as a novice hurdler he was rated ten pounds higher than his mark in this. I still believe he will prove to be a better chaser than hurdler, so has to be of interest here. It is also good to see Ryan Hatch on board as he takes off a useful seven pounds and has already ridden him to victory over fences. The ground is a bit of an unknown, but at odds of 20/1 I am prepared to take the chance.