DR PJ MORIARTY NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Dr P.J. Moriarty Novice Chase is a grade 1 event run over 2M 5F and it takes place on the undercard of Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup day at Leopardstown on Sunday 9th February. It’s often a race that can throw up clues for the novice chases at Cheltenham as the first 2 in 2009 (Cooldine and Forpadydeplasterer) went on to win the RSA Chase and Arkle at the Festival, the runner-up in 2010, Weapon’s Amnesty, won the RSA, the 2011 winner, Bostons Angel, also went on to RSA glory, the 2012 runner-up, Call The Police, was placed in the RSA and last year’s third, Lord Windermere, was another to go on to win the RSA.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-1
6yo: 0-1-6
7yo: 7-9-42
8yo: 2-2-19
9yo: 0-0-5
10yo: 0-1-1
7yos have won 7 of the last 10, though they have represented over 56.8% of the total runners.
No horse aged above 8 has ever won this race and the only 5yo winner was the French bred, J’y Vole. French bred horse often develop earlier as jumps horses.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (8 won)
9 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 138+ on last completed chase start
9 of 10 winners had run since Christmas Day
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August (exception won on only run)
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 2 to 4 chases (exception won only chase start)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded hurdle (1 exception had not run over hurdles)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown
4 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (other 6 had yet to run in a grade 1 chase)

Other races
Topaz Novice Chase winner (Carlingford Lough): 15611 (3-0-5)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Sizing Gold): 3231 (1-2-4)
Previous season's Michael Purcell Novice Hurdle winner (Bright New Dawn): 14 (1-0-2)
W.B.Gavin & Co. EBF Beginners Chase winner (Don Cossack): P14 (1-0-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Ballycasey):2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 2 (0-1-1)
Connexus Communications Beginners Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 452 (0-1-3)
Setanta Sports 1Euro Offer Beginners Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): 64 (0-0-2)
Woodland Park Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 54P (0-0-3)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 453 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase last time, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing P4
2 of 10 winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase last time, finishing FP
5 of 10 winners had run in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival (3 Albert Bartlett, 1 Neptune & 1 Triumph)
3 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse Easter Festival
3 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous Punchestown Festival

Trainers
Willie Mullins (4-2-13) has saddled 4 of the last 6 winners of the race.
Dessie Hughes (0-1-7) trained the runner-up in 2011 but his other 6 have all been unplaced.

Price
No strong trends on prices, 4 of the last 8 winners were priced between 8/1 and 16/1 while the other 4 were favourites.
Favourites (5-1-12) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.11.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Irish bred aged 7 or 8 (preferably 7)
- Has run since Christmas
- Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 139+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times over fences (or won only chase start)
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Previously won at Leopardstown
- Run in no more than 10 hurdles races
- Won or placed in a graded hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (or having first try in a grade 1 chase)
- Ran in a grade 1 novice hurdle at 2013 Punchestown or Cheltenham Festivals
- Won the Topaz Novice Chase
- Trained by Willie Mullins.