HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

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The Betfred Grand National Trial is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 4F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 15th February. It can often provide clues for the different Grand Nationals run later in the season and previous form in other Nationals is often a good guide to finding the winner of this.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-6-19
8yo: 2-8-36
9yo: 3-4-27
10yo: 1-1-24
11yo+: 2-3-20
12yo+: 0-1-11
horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-18-84
horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-5-55
All 3 winners aged 10+ finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap chase worth 15K+ last time.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-4-20
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-4-33
horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 3-8-40
horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 4-7-38
horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-7
Not a huge amount to go on with the weights, only 2 horses managed to carry over 11-0 to victory, both carried top weight.
Top Weight: 3PFPP1321P2P (2-4-12) has gained 3 wins and 4 places since 2003.

Official Ratings
horses rated 147 to 158: 1-4-24
horses rated 135 to 146: 6-10-54
horses rated 118 to 134: 3-9-61
5 of last 6 winners were all officially rated 138 to 149.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (exception was Silver By Nature winning it for a 2nd year)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 143+ on previous start
10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases (exception had yet to win one)
7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (3 exceptions had won a class 3 chase)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 17K+ (1 exception twice 2nd in Welsh National last time & other won Sussex National on previous run)
8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (1 exception won a grade 2 novice chase last time& other won class 3 Sussex National)
3 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (5 of other 7 were having first course start)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Well Refreshed): 21P (1-1-3)
That's season's Welsh National winner: 51P33 (1-2-5)
Highest placed finisher from that season's Welsh National: 1P5318P233 (2-4-10)
Previous season's Welsh National winner (Monbeg Dude): 23 (0-2-2)
Peter Marsh Chase winner (Wychwood Brook): 38P2 (0-2-4)
Scottish National winner (Godsmejudge): 8 (0-0-1)
Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 7 (0-0-1)
Unbeatable In-Running Value with Betfair Handicap Chase winner (Sydney Paget): P (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 51272
2 of 10 winners ran in Sussex National, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Classic Chase, finishing 27
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61
8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Surrey, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (1 exception was a novice chaser and the other won the Grand Sefton on previous start)

Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently from fifth fence

Trainers
Lucinda Russell (2-0-3) has won 2 of the last 4 renewals with Silver By Nature.
Gary Moore (1-0-1) won this last year with Well Refreshed while Michael Scudamore (1-0-2) won it back in 2007 with Heltornic.
Venetia Williams (0-3-10) & Paul Nicholls (0-3-11) have each saddled 3 placed finishers.
Alan King (0-2-7) has trained 2 placed horses in past 10 years.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-12) last won this in 2001 but only 1 of his 12 runners in past 10 years have made the places, while David Pipe (0-1-4) has also saddled 1 placed runner.
None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.

Jockeys
It has paid to use a rider with an allowance in this race as in 9 of the past 10 runnings, 1 of the first 2 home were ridden by a claimer:
Claiming riders: 4-10-44
Non-claiming riders: 6-13-97

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 18/1
Favourites (2-3-12) had a poor record prior to 2012 but have now won the last 2, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50 over past 10 years.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 9 (or finished in first 2 in h’cap chase worth 15K+ last time)
- Top weight has a fair record
- Officially rated 138 to 149
- Won or placed last time out
- Posted an RPR of 143 or higher last time
- Posted career high RPR at left-handed track
- Contested a class 2 handicap chase over 3M+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
- Won over 2M 7F or further
- Won 2 to 4 times over fences
- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning 1 to 3)
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Previously finished in first 2 in a Surrey, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National
- Finished in first 5 in Welsh National this season
- Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Lucinda Russell
- Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance.