daily thread saturday 22/2/2014

[ganjaman2]

2:40 Kempton – BetBright Mobile Pendil Novices’ Chase


BALDER SUCCES has really impressed me this season and I can see Kempton playing to his strengths as he jumps so well at speed. He has gained plenty of experience over fences, having raced five times. His win last time out at Warwick really caught the eye and I expect him to be hard to beat. Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race and Dark Lover is respected, but I feel the main danger will be Fox Appeal who looked good when winning at Ascot. Emma Lavelle had been struggling for form over the last few weeks, but had a winner at Huntingdon yesterday and he rates the main danger to me.




3:50 Kempton – BetBright Chase


TOUR DES CHAMPS is a fascinating runner here. As a novice he really impressed on his chase debut, winning easily at Uttoxeter and also won really well at Ludlow on soft ground. One of his most notable performances was when he was in the process of running a big race behind Rocky Creek at Warwick, when he was conceding three pounds and still had every chance when falling two out. Next time out he won easily at Ffos Las before finishing third to Rocky Creek at Ascot. First time out this season he ran a solid race to finish second to Balthazar King at Cheltenham off a mark of 133 and although he has run below form since, he has had a break and could easily bounce back to form. He has a rating of just 127 in this and when you compare that to the 157 that Rocky Creek has, you can see he has been given a chance. He gets in right at the bottom of the weights and this tight right handed track should really suit. It could also be significant that he is wearing a first time visor and that the Twiston-Davies stable is in red hot form having had four winners in the last two days from just six runners. Standing Ovation could prove the biggest danger. He was a horse going places earlier in the season, winning four in a row and having had a winter break I can see him running well again. All his wins have been on right-handed tracks which could be significant and Kempton could really suit him. He jumps and stays and on testing ground, could have a major say in the outcome of this race, with his usual jockey in the saddle.