IMPERIAL CUP TRENDS 2014

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The William Hill Imperial Cup is a 2M ½F listed handicap hurdle run at Sandown on the Saturday (8th March) before Cheltenham. Previous sponsors of the race, Sunderlands, offered a £75K bonus to any winner who went on to win at the Festival the following week and new sponsors, William Hill, are offering £100,000. The double was last achieved by Gaspara in 2007.





Below we take a look at the past 10 runnings to attempt to find some pointers:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 2-1-8
5yo: 2-5-42
6yo: 3-9-65
7yo: 1-11-55
8yo: 1-4-23
9yo: 1-0-14
10yo+: 0-0-4
Younger horses have fared better in recent years, especially 4yos who have gained 2 wins and a place from 8 runners (which improves to 2 wins and 1 place from 4 runners when only including 4yos priced less than 25/1)
horses aged 4 to 6: 7-15-115
horses aged 7 or older: 3-15-96
Since 2006, 5 of the 6 winners aged 4 or 5 came from the Pipe stable
2 of 3 winners aged 7+ were novice hurdlers who had been placed in group company on the flat.

Breeding
French bred: 4-8-56
Irish bred: 4-8-61
British bred: 1-9-63
German bred: 1-3-20
Other: 0-2-11
8 of 10 winners were French or Irish bred, and they only represented 55.4% of total runners.
The 8 winners aged 4 to 7 were Irish or French bred, 2 winners aged 8+ were German or British bred.
All three 4yos to win or place were French bred.
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-16-98
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-14-113
Lower weights have held sway with the last 10 winners all carrying less than 11-0.
Top Weight: 7P080000F32 (0-2-11) has been placed in last 2 renewals

Official Ratings
horses rated 131 or higher: 1-9-71
horses rated 121 to 130: 6-17-111
horses rated 120 or lower: 3-4-29
In past 7 years horses officially rated 122 to 130 have won 6 of 7 and filled 19 of 28 places.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed hurdles start
5 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts (4 of 5 exceptions were placed on 1 of last 2 starts)
8 of 10 winners had their last run between 16 and 55 days ago
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (3 exceptions did so on penultimate hurdles start)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 123+ in last 2 outings
8 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 2 handicap hurdles (3 exceptions had run in 5 to 11)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over hurdles in GB&IRE
6 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers
10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 hurdles since August
0 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded hurdle
7 of 10 winners ran on the flat (6 were rated 77 or higher on flat, other had won both starts in France)
Only 5 of 10 winners had previously run at Sandown (4 of 5 had 1 start, 2 won & other 2 were placed, other looked likely winner over CD on penultimate start before falling at last)
2 of 2 winners aged 4 had contested a graded hurdle that season

Other Races
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Sign 2000 Celebratory Handicap Hurdle, finishing 3F
2 of 10 winners won a Taunton Novice Hurdle that season
2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred Call Us On 08000 221221 Introductory Hurdle, finishing 31

Trainers
David Pipe (2-4-11) has carried on the great tradition his father Martin, he has trained the winner in '07 and '08 and his two runners in 2009 finished 2nd and 4th and his 2 runners in 2013 finished 2nd & 3rd. His record with 4yos is 2 wins and 1 place from 3 runners.
Philip Hobbs (1-3-9) trained the first 2 home in 2010 and also the 3rd place in 2009 & 2011.
Charlie Longsdon (1-0-1) won it with Painball in 2012 while Laura Mongan (1-0-2) trained a 20/1 winner in 2013 and a 50/1 fifth in 2009.
Nicky Henderson (1-0-12) trained the winner in 2009.
Gary Moore (0-3-13), Evan Williams (0-2-4) & Paul Nicholls (0-2-12) have each saddled multiple placed finishers since 2004.

Price
4 of 10 winners were sent off favourite, though 4 of last 5 winners went off between 10/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (4-2-11) have won 4 of last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 7.33.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French or Irish bred aged 4 to 7 (especially 4 or 5yos from Pipe stable)
- Carrying less than 11-0
- Officially rated 122 to 130
- Finished in first 3 on last start, 21 to 55 days ago
- Posted an RPR of 123+ on last 2 outings
- Run 1 to 5 times since August
- Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (won no more than twice)
- Novice hurdlers do well
- Run in no more than 2 handicap hurdles
- Won at no higher than class 2 over hurdles
- Previously won or placed at Sandown (or having first course start)
- Officially rated 77+ on the flat
- Trained by David Pipe or Phillip Hobbs.