WINTER DERBY TRENDS 2014

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The Coral.co.uk Winter Derby takes place at Lingfield on Saturday 22nd March. It is run over 1M 2F and is the first group race of the year run on the flat in Britain. The race was made a group 3 contest in 2006.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-5-42
5yo: 0-10-43
6yo: 4-1-18
7yo+: 2-4-25
horses aged 4 or 5: 4-15-85
horses aged 6+: 6-5-43
horses aged 6 or older have won 6 of last 10 from 33.6% of total runners.

Official Rating
horses rated 100 or higher: 9-15-70
horses rated 99 or lower: 0-4-43
horses with no rating: 1-1-15
9 of last 10 winners were officially rated 100 or higher and the exception did not have an official rating as it was his first start in Britain but did win a listed race by 2 lengths on previous start.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others finished 2nd & 4th in listed and other 2 wer unplaced a group race the previous year)
9 of 9 British-trained winners won 1 of their last 2 all-weather starts in GB
5 of 10 winners had won a race that year (other 5 were having first run that year - 5 of last 6 winners having first run that year)
8 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further (2 exceptions had won a class 1 race)
10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather
6 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above
Since the race became a group 3, 7 of 8 winners had won a listed or group race
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 14K+

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Faraaj): 0 (0-0-1)
Highest placed finisher from Churchill Stakes: 09905561131 (3-1-10)
Coral.co.uk Handicap winner (Robin Hoods Bay): 6162082 (1-2-7)
Lingfield Winter Derby Trial winner (Grandeur): 912960 (1-1-6)
Quebec Stakes winner (Dicky Doughtywylie): 1 (1-0-1)
London Mile Handicap winner (Graphic): 2 (0-1-1)
Betdaq Sports Betting Exchange H'cap winner (Rebellious Guest): 2 (0-1-1)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the Churchill Stakes, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners had run in the Lingfield Winter Derby Trial, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners had won Lingfield handicap over 1M 2F to 1M 4F in February
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in the Quebec Stakes, finishing 51
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in the Wildflower Stakes, finishing 92
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Nayef Joel Stakes, finishing 62

Trainers
Chris Wall (1-1-7) and Roger Varian (1-0-1) have trained the last 2 winners of this.
Ed Vaughan (0-1-1), Paul Cole (0-1-1) & John Gosden (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner get placed.

Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners led or track leader(s)

Draw
horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-7-70
horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-13-58
There is slight preference for horses drawn 7 or lower.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below.
No very strong trend on the prices with 8 of the 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting but there have been a few surprises at 25/1 and 14/1 in last 10 years.
Favourites (4-2-13) have won of 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.63.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6+ (or a 4yo that had placed in a group 1)
- Officially rated 100+
- Won last time out (or making seasonal debut)
- Won over 1M 2F+
- Won 1 of last 2 all-weather starts
- Course winner (or having first start at Lingfield)
- Won at listed or group race worth 14K+
- Finished in first 3 in Churchill Stakes or Winter Derby Trial
- Trained by Chris Wall or Roger Varian
- Tends to race prominently
- Priced 8/1 or below.