IRISH LINCOLNSHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

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The [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] Irish Lincolnshire Handicap takes place the Curragh on Sunday 23rd March and it marks the beginning of the flat season in Ireland. Generally run on testing ground, it can be tough to shoulder a high weight to victory and previous winning form on soft ground is a plus.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 5-9-82
5yo: 2-8-55
6yo: 1-7-43
7yo: 0-1-21
8yo+: 2-4-19
7 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 though they represented 61.6% of total runners.
One winner aged 8+ had finished 2nd in previous years race and the other had won the English Lincolnshire 2 seasons previous.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 9-1 or more: 3-8-61
horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 5-7-48
horses carrying 8-8 or less: 2-14-111
horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0 have won 5 of last 10 from approximately 21.8% of the total runners.
Top weight: 09400000380 (0-2-11)

Official Ratings
horses rated 94 or higher: 3-9-63
horses rated 84 to 93: 7-13-85
horses rated 83 or lower: 0-7-72
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 84 to 93, they represented just 38.6% of total runners, though the last 2 winners have been rated 97 and 100.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners were having their first flat start of the year (2 exceptions had run once on Dundalk all-weather)
8 of 10 winners posted and RPR of 84+ on last turf start
7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last turf start (3 exceptions unplaced in a race worth 13K+)
5 of 5 winners aged 4 had run in 2 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 1)
5 of 5 winners aged 5+ had run in at least 8 handicaps (4 of 5 have won 2 to 4)
9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 career flat wins
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M 2F
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) had won over this CD (2 others placed over the CD and 2 were having first course start)
9 of 10 winners had not won a race worth more than 15K
9 of 10 winners had won a race on ground softer than good

Other Races
Record of placed finishers from previous year: 50080120 (1-1-8)
Sligo Weekender Handicap winner (Cheval Rouge): 2 (0-1-1)
Irish Field Handicap winner (Regulation): 0 (0-0-1)
3 of 5 winners aged 4 had won their maiden over this CD as a 3yo
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Cambridgeshire, finishing 003
3 of 10 winners ran in Emirates Equestrian Federation H'cap, finishing 026
2 of 10 winners ran in 1M 1F Guinness Handicap at Listowel, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners had last start in a 1M handicap at Leopardstown November meeting, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Ruby Stakes, finishing 26

Trainers
Tom Stack (2-3-9) has a fine record in this, gaining 2 wins and 3 places from 9 runners.
Dermot Weld (1-1-12) has saddled the winner & placed finisher.
Tommy Carmody (1-0-2) & Mick Halford (1-0-11) have also both trained a winner since 2004.
Harry Rogers (0-2-5) last trained the winner of this in 2003 but he has also saddled the runner-up in 2006 and last year.
Jim Bolger (0-2-9) has seen 2 of his 9 runners make the frame since 2004.
Dessie Hughes (0-1-2), Ken Condon (0-1-4) and Richard Fahey (0-1-5) have each managed just 1 place.
British-trained runners (0-1-11) do not have a good record, gaining just 1 place from 11 runners.

Jockeys
Claimers (3-9-84) have ridden 3 winners in past 10 years, including 2 of last 4.
Johnny Murtagh rode 4 winners of this between 2003 and 2013, and was involved in training last year’s winner. Wayne Lordan (2-2-10) and Declan McDonogh (1-2-6) have also had good success in the race.

Draw
horses drawn in bottom half: 2-18-112
horses drawn in top half: 8-11-108
8 of 10 winners were drawn 14 or higher.

Price
No strong trends on prices, with 4 of the last 7 winners going off at 10/1 or shorter and the other 3 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-1-10) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 that won maiden over this CD & run in 2 or less handicaps or
- Aged 5+ that has run in 11 or more handicaps (winning 2 to 4)
- Carrying 8-9 to 9-0
- Officially rated 84 or higher (ideally 84 to 100)
- Having first start of 2014 (or run once on all-weather)
- Finished in first 4 on last turf start (posting RPR of 84+)
- Previously gained 1 to 3 career wins
- Won over 1M to 1M 2F
- Never won a race worth more than £15K in Ireland
- Won on softer than good
- Drawn in top half of the field (ideally 14 or higher)
- Run in 2013 Irish Cambridgeshire and/or Emirates Equestrian Federation H'cap
- Trained by Tom Stack, Johnny Murtagh or Harry Rogers
- Ridden by Wayne Lordan, Declan McDonogh or a claimer.