The Dubai World Cup is the richest horse race in the world with a purse of 10 million dollars up for grabs. The races takes place at Meydan on Saturday 29th March and will bring together some of the best horses from Europe, Asia, America, South Africa and the Middle East. Inaugurated in 1996, the race was run on dirt at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009 before being moved to Meydan in 2010 and has been run on a Tapeta surface for the past 4 years. The change in surface means that some trends are now less significant as the previous American dominance in the race has lessened significantly on tapeta.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.
2 of 3 winners aged 6+ had placed in the previous year’s World Cup, other had won the previous year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic
Mares (0-0-3) have failed to finish better than 8th with their 3 runners since 2004. All 3 female runners were sent off 10/1 or shorter.
For 6 runnings on dirt:
USA bred: 5-7-34
Argentinian bred: 1-1-9
S African bred: 0-2-4
Brazilian bred: 0-1-4
For 4 runnings on Tapeta:
GB bred: 1-2-14
Japanese bred: 1-1-7
Brazilian bred: 1-0-1
USA bred: 1-0-13
Irish bred: 0-4-9
S African bred: 0-1-2
While American bred horses dominated on dirt, 12 of 13 USA bred runners in last 4 renewals have been unplaced, though Animal Kingdom did win it for the US Breds last year.
9 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ last time (exception did so on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had at least 9 career starts
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F
9 of 10 winners had won a group/grade 1 (exception was a group 2 winner that had placed in previous Dubai World Cup)
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 250K+
Al Maktoum Challenge R3 winner (Prince Bishop): 301700927 (1-2-9)
Al Maktoum Challenge R1 winner (Shuruq): 051 (1-0-3)
Al Maktoum Challenge R2 winner (Prince Bishop): 3465307 (0-2-7)
Previous season's UAE 2000 Guineas winner (Soft Falling Rain): 327 (0-2-3)
Previous season's Burj Nahar winner (African Story): 05 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in previous season's Dubai World Cup, finishing 323
3 of 4 non-American winners ran in the Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 3 last time, finishing 124
Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Wattani): 1 (1-0-1)
Singapore Airlines International Cup winner (Military Attack): 1 (1-0-1)
King Edward VII Stakes winner (Hillstar): 3 (0-1-1)
Japan Cup Dirt winner (Belshazzar): 74020 (0-1-5)
Hong Kong Cup winner (Akeed Mofeed): 0 (0-0-1)
September Stakes winner (Prince Bishop): 6 (0-0-1)
Kawasaki Kinen winner (Hokko Tarumae): 40 (0-0-2
Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Fugue): 44 (0-0-2)
JBC Classic winner (Hokko Tarumae): 800 (0-0-3)
Tokyo Daishoten winner (Hokko Tarumae): 600 (0-0-3)
4 of 6 American trained winners ran in the Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing 1211
2 of 6 American trained winners ran in Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing 92
2 of 6 American trained winners ran in the Donn Handicap last time, finishing 21
2 of 6 American trained winners ran in the San Antonio Handicap last time, finishing 12
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in the Goodwood Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in the Whitney Handicap, finishing 11
USA: 6-6-34 (5 of 6 winners were on dirt)
S Africa: 0-4-13
Since this race was inaugurated in 1996 American trainers have won 9 of 18 runnings. They have failed to produce placed finisher on only 4 occasions, in 2002 when they had only one representative at 20/1 and quite importantly in the 3 years between 2010 to 2012, the first 3 renewals run on tapeta instead of dirt. Last year, Animal Kingdom was first US trained runner that made the first 3 on tapeta, when landing the prize.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-13) won the race 5 times between 1999 and 2006 but his 11 runners in the past 7 years have all finished unplaced.
Mike De Kock (0-3-11) has seen 3 of his 11 runners make the frame.
Ed Dunlop (0-1-1) saddled Red Cadeaux to finish 2nd last year.
Aidan O’Brien (0-0-2) has saddled 2 runners (5/4 favourite and 4/1), both unplaced.
From 2004 to 2008 every running of this race had gone to one of the first two in the betting while the last 5 winners have gone off 10/1, 16/1, 12/1, 20/1 & 11/2.
Favourites (4-1-10) have won of 4 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 1.76.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 or 5 (or previously won or placed in the World Cup)
- Avoid mares
- Avoid US bred horses
- Finished in the first 2 last time, posting an RPR of 118+
- Run once or twice in 2014
- Ran in the past 60 days
- Won a grade/group 1
- Won over 1M 2F
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- European-trained that finished in first 4 in a Round 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge
- US-trained that finished in first 2 in Breeders Cup Classic or Mile.