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    Default LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

    The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 29th March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 5-6-63
    5yo: 2-10-68
    6yo: 3-6-49
    7yo: 0-4-27
    8yo+: 0-4-16
    4yo have won 5 of the last 10 runnings
    4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 80.7% of the runners.
    There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-11-68
    horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 5-14-106
    horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-5-49
    8 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4.
    horses running with a penalty (1-4-14) have a solid record with 5 of 14 making the frame, and 1 winning.
    Top weight: 1700276047 (1-2-10)

    Official Ratings
    horses rated 99 or higher: 2-10-62
    horses rated 90 to 98: 8-19-149
    horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-12
    8 of 10 winners were officially rated 95 or higher.
    horses rated 95 or higher: 8-22-136
    horses rated 94 or lower: 2-8-87

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last turf start (4 won)
    7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain
    8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
    9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 4 starts
    10 of 10 winners previously gained 2 to 4 career wins
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
    9 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)
    8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
    Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3
    1 of 10 winners won a class 1 race (listed)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Levitate): 0903 (0-1-4)
    Highest placed finisher from Betfred Bonus King H'cap to run in this: 8420320 (0-4-7)
    Ben Marshall Stakes winner (Penitent): 1 (1-0-1)
    Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Whispering Warrior): 3008 (0-1-4)
    Thirsk Hunt Cup winner (Norse Blues): 0 (0-0-1)
    Betfred Fun And Friendly Handicap winner (Levitate): 0 (0-0-1)
    Whitsun Cup winner (Spa's Dancer): 0 (0-0-1)
    Ayrshire Handicap winner (Levitate): 805 (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 700
    2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Summer Double International Stakes, finishing 00
    5 of 10 winners had last turf run at Newmarket the previous September to November
    Since 2000 the record of first 5 from Betfred "Bonus King" H'cap to run in this: 001014301540020320 (3-6-18).

    Trainers
    John Quinn (2-1-8) trained the winner in 2006 & 2013.
    Richard Fahey (1-7-24) trained the winner in 2012 and saddled 2 placed finishers in 2013.
    David Barron (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the frame.
    Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Kevin Ryan (0-0-11), Dandy Nicholls (0-0-11), Tim Easterby (0-0-5) and Richard Hannon (0-0-4) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 31 combined runners.

    Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2002-2013)
    horses drawn 1 to 7: 4-13-70
    horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-9-70
    horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-8-83
    No strong trends on the draw, though the last 3 runnings at Doncaster and ground described as soft were all won by horses drawn in stalls 1 to 3. The Spring Mile, which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card, can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.

    Price
    No strong trends on prices, 5 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 while the other 5 winners (including last
    Favourites (3-0-11) have won 3 of the last runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 4 to 6 (4yos especially)
    - Carrying 8-9 to 9-4
    - Officially rated 95 or higher
    - Won one of last four races
    - Finished in first 3 last time out
    - Posted their highest RPR in last two runs
    - Having first run of the season
    - Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)
    - Gained 2 to 4 career wins
    - Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
    - Previously won at class 2 or 3 level (but no higher)
    - Won a race worth 11K+
    - Finished in first 5 from Betfred "Bonus King" H'cap at Newmarket in October
    - Trained by John Quinn or Richard Fahey
    - If run on soft or heavy ground, drawn 1 to 3.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd March 2014), neilb (23rd March 2014) 


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