DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC TRENDS 2014

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The Dubai Sheema Classic is a group 1, run on turf, over 1M 4F. The races takes place at Meydan on Saturday 29th March and will bring together some of the best turf horses from all over the globe. Inaugurated in 1998, the race was run at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009 before being moved to Meydan in 2010.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-5-34

5yo: 5-6-48

6yo: 2-6-33

7yo: 2-2-16

8yo+: 0-1-3

No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.



Gender

Fillies/Mares: 540071974218562 (2-2-15) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 15 runners (just 11.2% of total runners).



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (exeption 6th in St Leger)

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 4 runs

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 112+ last time out

10 of 10 winners had no more than 2 runs that year

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (exception won over 1M 3F)

7 of 10 winners had won a group/grade 1 (2 of 3 exceptions were group 2 winners that had been placed in a group 1)



Other Races

Hong Kong Vase winner (Dominant): 1438 (1-1-4)

Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Ambivalent): 51 (1-0-2)

Japan Cup winner (Gentildonna): 2 (0-1-1)

Rose Stakes winner (Denim And Ruby): 2 (0-1-1)

Ormonde Stakes winner (Mount Athos): 02 (0-1-2)

Breeders Cup Turf winner (Magician): 902

Preis Von Europa winner (Meandre): 308 (0-1-3)

Dubai City Of Gold winner (Excellent Result): 6407799 (0-0-7)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Cathay Pacific HK Cup, finishing 135

3 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 262

2 of 10 winners ran in the Breeders' Cup Turf last time, finishing 33

2 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 50

2 of 10 winners ran in the Japan Cup, finishing 62

2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Deauville, finishing 1d1

2 of 10 winners ran in Coronation Cup, finishing 61

2 of 10 winners ran in King George, finishing 03

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Sheema Classic, finishing 42



Trainers

GB: 2-9-30

France: 2-2-12

UAE: 2-0-5

Japan: 1-2-6

S Africa: 1-2-20

Godolphin: 1-2-22

Irish: 1-1-8

Hong Kong: 0-1-2

USA: 0-1-14

German: 0-0-5

Other: 0-0-10

Proportionally horses from France, UAE and Japan have fared best in this race. horses trained in the USA have gained just 1 place from 14 runners, while Godolphin have gained just 1 win from 22 runners in this since 2004.

Mike De Kock (1-2-16) has seen 3 of his 11 runners make the frame.

Aidan O’Brien (1-1-4) saddled St Nicholas Abbey to finish 2nd & 1st in last 2 runnings.

Corine Barande-Barbe (1-0-1) won this in 2012 with Cirrus Des Aigles, who may run again this year.

John Moore (0-1-1), Sei Ishizaka (0-1-1) and Marco Botti (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner in this get placed.

Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-16) won this in 1998 & 2003 but has gained just 1 place from 16 runners in past 10 years.



Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter

Other than Eastern Anthem’s 14/1 win in 2009, all other winners were sent off at single figure prices, with 5 of 10 (including last 3) going off at shorter than 7/2.

Favourites (4-1-10) have won of 4 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 1.76.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Fillies & mares have a better than average record

- Finished in the first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 112+

- Run no more than twice in 2014

- Ran in the past 60 days

- Won a grade/group 1

- Won over 1M 4F

- Trained in France, UAE or Japan (avoid US-trained runners)

- Finished in first 5 in 2013 Hong Kong Cup, Sheema Classic, Arc and/or BC Turf

- Finished in first 6 in 2013 Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and/or Japan Cup.