DUBAI DUTY FREE TRENDS 2014
The Dubai Duty Free is a group 1, run on turf, over 1M 1F. The races takes place at Meydan on Saturday 29th March, on the under card to the Dubai World Cup. The race was run at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009 before being moved to Meydan in 2010. The Jebel Hatta has provided clues for this race in recent years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 3-6-42
5yo: 3-3-44
6yo: 3-7-38
7yo: 2-1-16
8yo+: 0-2-9
No very strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners, though the last 4 winners have been aged 6 or 7.
Gender
Fillies/Mares: 7498660060654209760727531 (1-3-25) won back to back runnings in 2002 & 2003 but have only won 1 of the last 10, when Sajjhaa won this last year.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 115+ last time out
6 of 7 winners, that had run that year, had already won a race earlier in the year (exception was a close 2nd in Jebel Hatta over the CD last time out)
3 of 3 winners that were making seasonal debut finished in first 2 in a group 1 worth over 250K last time out
10 of 10 winners had had 9 or more career starts
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (6 had won a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in group 1
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M 2F
3 of 4 winners at Meydan had won at the track earlier that year (2 over the CD)
Other Races
Al Fahidi Fort winner (Anaerobio): 0231200 (1-3-7)
Jebel Hatta winner (Vercingetorix): 048400031 (1-1-9)
Sapporo Kinen winner (Tokei Halo): 1 (1-0-1)
Zabeel Mile winner (Mshawish): 5634 (0-1-4)
Stewards' Cup winner (Blazing Speed): 987 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Jebel Hatta last time, finishing 231
2 of 10 winners ran in Al Rashidiya, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in QEII Cup at Sha Tin, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Prince Of Wales' Stakes, finishing 89
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Duty Free, finishing 20
Trainers
GB: 3-3-21
South Africa: 2-8-29
UAE: 2-1-12
Godolphin: 1-2-23
Japan: 1-1-8
German: 1-0-2
Australian: 1-0-7
France: 0-2-8
USA: 0-2-16
Irish: 0-0-5
Hong Kong: 0-0-9
Other: 0-0-9
Proportionally horses from UAE and Britain have fared best in this race. horses trained in the USA, Ireland & Hong Kong have fared less well, gaining just 2 places from a collective 30 runners. Godolphin have gained just 1 win (last year) from 23 runners in this since 2004.
Mike De Kock (1-6-21) won back to back runnings in 2003 & 2004 and since then has seen 6 of his 19 runners make the places.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-18) won all 4 runnings between 1997 & 2000, however his only winner since 2001 came with Sajjhaa last year.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 9/2 and 12/1
There have been 2 big shocks with a 40/1 winner in 2010 and a 50/1 winner in 2008.
The 2 UAE based winners were sent off 40/1 & 12/1.
Favourites (3-2-12) have won 3 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes profit of 4.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- 6 and 7yos have done well recently
- Finished in the first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 115+
- Won a race in 2014 or making seasonal debut & finished in first 2 in group 1 last time
- Has had at least 9 career starts
- Finished in first 2 a grade/group 1
- Won over 1M to 1M 2F
- Finished in first 3 in Jebel Hatta
- Won over the CD or having first run over the CD
- Trained in Britain, UAE or South Africa (avoid US & Hong Kong trained runners).
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