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  1. #1
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    Default day1 aintree festival trends

    ANNIVERSARY 4YO HURDLE TRENDS




    The Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race of this year’s Aintree Grand National meeting on Thursday 3rd April. The race is usually dominated by horses that ran in the Triumph Hurdle, though in recent years the Fred Winter has also been a good trial with the Fred Winter and Adonis Hurdles have both





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age
    Race for 4yos

    Gender
    Fillies (1-0-5) have gained 1 win (last year) from 5 runners in past 10 years. All 4 winning fillies in the past 20 years had bypassed Cheltenham.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 4-9-47
    French bred: 3-6-27
    USA bred: 2-0-6
    British bred: 1-4-30
    Other: 0-1-9
    9 of 10 winners were Irish, French or American bred.
    British bred horses finally won this in 2012, after a long drought, though British breds represented the first 3 in the betting. They had previously had a very poor record in the race, failing to win any of the previous 10.
    10 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner on the flat
    8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in group 1 on flat

    Recent/Past Form
    10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 3 last time out
    Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 141+ last time
    8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a Cheltenham grade 1 last time)
    9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
    9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 5+ lengths (1 exception won his 2 starts, both in graded company)
    8 of 10 winners had previously contested a grade 1 (exceptions were 3rd in Fred Winter and Adonis Hurdle on previous starts)
    Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 9 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle
    Since race became a grade 1, 6 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception made racecourse debut in a French listed hurdle)

    Other Races
    Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 211212 (3-3-6)
    Highest placed finisher from Triumph Hurdle: 2111212127 (5-4-10)
    Fred Winter H'cap Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 5034 (0-1-4)
    Record of the first 3 in Fred Winter in this: 50273124 (1-3-8)
    Adonis Hurdle winner (Activial): 214113 (3-2-6)
    Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Ballyglasheen): 3134 (1-2-4)
    Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner (Broughton): 3 (0-1-1)
    Betfred Fun And Friendly Juvenile Hurdle winner (Baradari): 2B (0-1-2)
    Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle winner (Calipto): 25 (0-1-2)
    Dornan Engineering Ltd Introductory Juvenile Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 79 (0-0-2)
    7 of 10 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, finishing 0211213 (1 exception 3rd in Fred Winter, one was 2nd in Supreme & other was 3rd in Adonis)
    4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1113
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile hurdle, finishing 111
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred TV Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1F

    Trainers
    Paul Nicholls (1-4-13) has gained 2 wins and 4 places from 14 runners since 2003.
    Nicky Henderson (1-2-8) trained Punjabi to finish 2nd in 2007, Binocular to win it in 2008 and was a bit unlucky to see Grandouet get brought down when going well in 2011.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-2), John Quinn (0-1-2) & Evan Williams (0-1-2) have each gained 1 place from 2 runners since 2004.
    Irish trained horses (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places from approximately 9.3% of the total runners. 2 of 3 Irish-trained runners to make the frame had won a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham at November or December meetings, other had won Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown.

    Price
    Since 2005 (when made a grade 1) 7 of 9 winners were sent off favourite
    Favourites (7-1-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 10.54.




    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Irish, French or USA bred gelding
    - Sired by a group winner on the flat (that won/placed in group 1)
    - Raced on the flat (rated 80+)
    - Run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten)
    - Won at least twice over hurdles
    - Finished in first 3 in Triumph Hurdle last time (posting RPR of 141+)
    - Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1
    - Won a hurdles race by 5 or more lengths (or unbeaten over hurdles)
    - First 3 in Finesse, Adonis and/or Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle
    - Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
    - Favourite has a very strong record.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (30th March 2014), neilb (30th March 2014) 


  2. #2
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 aintree festival trends

    AINTREE BOWL TRENDS 2014




    The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of four grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2014 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 3rd April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 6 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-1-2
    7yo: 2-6-12
    8yo: 3-5-22
    9yo: 1-1-17
    10yo: 2-1-10
    11yo+: 2-1-9
    12yo+: 0-1-3
    The last 8 winners were aged 7 to 10, 5 were aged 7 or 8 and the 3 winners aged 9 or 10 had all finished in first 3 in previous year’s Betfred Bowl Chase.
    All 4 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season.

    Gender
    The two mares (0-2-2) to run in this race in past 10 years have both finished 2nd.

    Breeding
    Irish Bred: 5-5-31
    French Bred: 3-8-23
    British Bred: 2-3-19
    German Bred: 0-0-2
    No very strong trend on breeding.

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)
    9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 162+ in last 2 completed chase starts
    9 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases (exception had finished 2nd in 5 grade 1 chases)
    9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 3M+ (exception having first try at 3M+)
    10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (4 had won a grade 1 chase)
    7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season
    Only 1 of past 10 winners had previously won at Aintree, so course form is not vital.

    Other races
    Returning Bowl winner (First Lieutenant): 2P34 (0-1-4)
    Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 2P312FF524 (1-4-10) 7 of these 10 were sent off favourite
    King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 12 (1-1-2)
    Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 124123315 (3-3-9)
    Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): 41P (1-0-3)
    Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Dynaste):3 (0-1-1)
    Betfred Goals Galore Chase winner (Unioniste): 66 (0-0-2)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 5U26
    2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase last time, finishing 12
    4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2224
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the Lexus, finishing 162
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 133
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Argento Chase, finishing 112
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 333
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 62
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11

    Trainers
    The Pipe Yard (4-1-10) have won 4 of last 10, with David Pipe (2-0-4) training back to back winners in 2008 & 2009.
    Paul Nicholls (1-3-11) won the race in 2010 but he’s not had much luck in it other than that win. He’s saddled 4 beaten favourite in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).
    Mouse Morris (1-0-1) has trained First Lieutenant to win this last year.
    Irish-trained runners (2-0-9) have won last 2, both winners ran in Lexus Chase that season.

    Price
    Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2004
    It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 7 or 8 (or finished in first 3 in this race previously)
    - Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)
    - Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup
    - Posted an RPR of 162+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts
    - Won over 3M+
    - Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
    - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase this season
    - Finished in first 6 in Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase or bypassed Cheltenham
    - Finished the first 4 in King George, Lexus and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
    - Finished in first 3 in Argento, Charlie Hall and/or 2013 Aintree Bowl
    - Trained by David Pipe or in Ireland
    - Favourite has a poor record.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (31st March 2014), neilb (31st March 2014) 


  3. #3
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    Default Re: day1 aintree festival trends

    AINTREE HURDLE TRENDS 2014




    The Aintree Hurdle takes place on the opening day of the 3-day Aintree Grand National Festival, on Thursday 3rd April. A grade 1 run over 2M 4F, it usually attracts several of the Champion Hurdle contenders as well some classy staying hurdlers. This year’s renewal has added interest as Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle winner, The New One, could take on several runners from the Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 0-1-2
    5yo: 2-4-19
    6yo: 2-2-20
    7yo: 3-5-27
    8yo: 3-3-14
    9yo: 0-2-7
    10yo+: 0-1-5
    All 10 winners have been aged 5 to 8, though that’s hardly surprising considering they have represented 85.1%of the total runners.
    2 of 3 placed horses aged 9+ were placed in previous year’s renewal, other had won previous year’s Champion Hurdle and placed in that season’s Champion.

    Gender
    Mares (1-2-7) have gained 1 win & 2 places from 7 runners (7.44% of total runners) since 2004.

    Breeding
    Irish Bred: 8-4-43
    French Bred: 1-9-30
    British Bred: 1-3-13
    American Bred 0-1-3
    German Bred: 0-1-5
    Irish bred horses have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 45.74% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed hurdles start (4 exceptions unplaced in a grade 1, 3 at Cheltenham Festival)
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 148+ last time (last 6 posted RPR of 154+ last time)
    10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 hurdles that season
    9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
    8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdles (both exceptions were Al Eile winning it for 2nd and 3rd time)
    8 of 10 winners had 6 to 13 previous hurdles starts (both exceptions were Al Eile winning it for 2nd and 3rd time)
    9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception finished 3rd in Champion Hurdle on previous start)
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception had yet to run in a grade 1 & other was 7th in Champion Hurdle last time)
    6 of 10 winners had previously won a graded hurdle at Aintree Festival (3 of 4 others were having first course start)

    Other races
    International Hurdle winner (The New One): 0211 (2-1-4)
    Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 11 (2-0-2)
    Kingwell Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 21 (1-1-2)
    Ryanair Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 41 (1-0-2)
    Elite Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 7F1 (1-0-3)
    Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 22530F (0-3-6)
    Coral Cup winner (Whisper): 63 (0-1-2)
    Previous season's Neptune Novice Hurdle winner (The New One): 27 (0-1-2)
    Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 92 (0-1-2)
    Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 74 (0-0-2)
    Ascot hurdle winner (Annie Power): 34 (0-0-2)
    Holloway's Hurdle winner (Irish Saint): 78 (0-0-2)
    Highest placed finisher from Champion Hurdle: 2F23201735 (1-4-10)
    5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Aintree Hurdle, finishing 6101F
    5 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle last time, finishing 7F234
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 6641
    2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle, finishing 21
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in International Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Doran Engineering Hurdle, finishing 11

    Trainers
    Nicky Henderson (2-1-10) has trained Oscar Whiskey to win this in 2011 & 2012.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-2) trained Khyber Kim, who won it in 2010 & The New One to finish close 2nd last year.
    Paul Nicholls (1-0-8) won this last year with Zarkandar, though his previous 7 runners had all finished unplaced.
    Willie Mullins (0-4-4) has saddled a placed finisher in 4 of the last 5 runnings.
    Irish-trained runners (5-7-27) have a fine record in this race, winning 6 of the last 11. They were not represented in 2004 and in the other 4 years they filled one of the places.

    Price
    8 of 10 winners (last 6) were priced between 5/2 and 6/1
    No strong trends on prices and while no winner has gone off bigger than 12/1, the favourite has a poor enough record.
    Favourites (2-4-12) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 6.37.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 5 to 8
    - Irish bred
    - Had 6 to 13 career hurdles starts (won at least 3)
    - Second or third season hurdler (or previous winner)
    - Run in 2 to 5 hurdles this season
    - Posted an RPR of 154+ last time
    - Ran in the past 40 days
    - Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    - Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle
    - Previously won at Aintree Festival (or having first course start)
    - Ran in the Champion Hurdle or Coral Cup last time
    - Ran in the 2013 Ryanair and/or Aintree Hurdle
    - Finished in first 2 in Red Mills Trial, International and/or Dornan Engineering Hurdle
    - Trained by Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston-Davies or in Ireland.

  4. #4
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 aintree festival trends

    CRABBIE'S FOXHUNTERS CHASE TRENDS 2014


    The Crabbie’s Foxhunters Chase takes place on the opening day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, on Thursday 3rd April. The race is run over the Grand National fences, over a trip of 2M 5½F and is restricted to amateur riders. horses that have fared well in the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase have not necessarily repeated the feat here.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    7yo: 0-2-9
    8yo: 0-0-17
    9yo: 1-4-41
    10yo: 2-5-56
    11yo: 4-6-57
    12yo: 2-2-44
    13yo+: 1-1-29
    9 of 10 winners were aged 10 or older, though they have accounted for 73.5% of total runners.
    2 winners aged 12 were Scots Grey (placed in 4 class 1 chases & had been rated over 140 over fences) and Cloudy Lane (grade 2 chase winner that had formerly been rated over 150 over fences).
    horses aged 8 or younger have gained no wins and just 2 places from 26 runners.

    Breeding
    British Bred: 4-3-54
    Irish Bred: 3-10-148
    French Bred: 3-7-45
    Other: 0-0-6
    Irish bred runners have accounted for 58.5% of the total runners but have only won 3 of the last 10 renewals. French & British bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from just 39.1% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (exception won on penultimate start)
    7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed chase start
    8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs
    9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)
    9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)
    8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 4 hunter chases (winning no more than 1)
    10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
    7 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock

    Cheltenham Festival
    Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: 6U (0-0-2)
    3 of last 6 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU6
    You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.
    Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.

    Other Races
    Previous year's winner (Tartan Snow): 1U2U79 (1-1-6)
    Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Ockey De Neulliac): 3U11F8 (2-1-6)
    Air Wedding Hunters' Chase winner (Pentiffic): UF (0-0-2)
    John McCarthy Memorial Hunters Chase winner (Warne): U4 (0-0-2)
    Whitelaw Challenge Cup winner (Richard's Sundance): PF (0-0-2)
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11

    Racing Tactics
    8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race
    Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.

    Trainers
    Stuart Coltherd (1-0-1) & Donald McCain (1-0-3) have trained the past 2 winners.
    Oliver Greenall (0-1-2) & Venetia Williams (0-1-2) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-12) last won this in 2002 and in past 10 years, he has seen 6 of his 12 runners complete the course and 5 of those 6 finished in the first 7 but only one get placed.
    Willie Mullins (0-1-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd, 8th & 10th in past 3 runnings.
    Irish trained runners (0-5-48) have gained no wins and just 5 places from 48 runners. They have been responsible for 4 favourites in that time.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1
    In 2010 Silver Adonis won at 50/1, the only double figure price winner since 2000.
    Favourites (3-2-13) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.83. In 4 of the last 7 years where favourite was beaten, it was trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 10 to 12
    - French & British bred runners favoured
    - Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days
    - Posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start
    - Won on 1 of last 2 starts
    - Won 2 or more chases under rules
    - Won over 2M 4F+
    - Won a class 3 or better chase
    - Won 1 or 2 races this season
    - Previously run in 4 or fewer hunter chases (winning no more than 1)
    - Ideally has won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock
    - Won the Walrus Hunter Chase
    - Tends to race prominently
    - Trained in Great Britain
    - Priced between 3/1 and 8/1.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (1st April 2014) 


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