day1 aintree festival trends

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ANNIVERSARY 4YO HURDLE TRENDS




The Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race of this year’s Aintree Grand National meeting on Thursday 3rd April. The race is usually dominated by horses that ran in the Triumph Hurdle, though in recent years the Fred Winter has also been a good trial with the Fred Winter and Adonis Hurdles have both





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age
Race for 4yos

Gender
Fillies (1-0-5) have gained 1 win (last year) from 5 runners in past 10 years. All 4 winning fillies in the past 20 years had bypassed Cheltenham.

Breeding
Irish bred: 4-9-47
French bred: 3-6-27
USA bred: 2-0-6
British bred: 1-4-30
Other: 0-1-9
9 of 10 winners were Irish, French or American bred.
British bred horses finally won this in 2012, after a long drought, though British breds represented the first 3 in the betting. They had previously had a very poor record in the race, failing to win any of the previous 10.
10 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner on the flat
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in group 1 on flat

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 3 last time out
Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 141+ last time
8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a Cheltenham grade 1 last time)
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 5+ lengths (1 exception won his 2 starts, both in graded company)
8 of 10 winners had previously contested a grade 1 (exceptions were 3rd in Fred Winter and Adonis Hurdle on previous starts)
Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 9 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle
Since race became a grade 1, 6 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception made racecourse debut in a French listed hurdle)

Other Races
Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 211212 (3-3-6)
Highest placed finisher from Triumph Hurdle: 2111212127 (5-4-10)
Fred Winter H'cap Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 5034 (0-1-4)
Record of the first 3 in Fred Winter in this: 50273124 (1-3-8)
Adonis Hurdle winner (Activial): 214113 (3-2-6)
Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Ballyglasheen): 3134 (1-2-4)
Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner (Broughton): 3 (0-1-1)
Betfred Fun And Friendly Juvenile Hurdle winner (Baradari): 2B (0-1-2)
Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle winner (Calipto): 25 (0-1-2)
Dornan Engineering Ltd Introductory Juvenile Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 79 (0-0-2)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, finishing 0211213 (1 exception 3rd in Fred Winter, one was 2nd in Supreme & other was 3rd in Adonis)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1113
3 of 10 winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile hurdle, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred TV Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1F

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (1-4-13) has gained 2 wins and 4 places from 14 runners since 2003.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-8) trained Punjabi to finish 2nd in 2007, Binocular to win it in 2008 and was a bit unlucky to see Grandouet get brought down when going well in 2011.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-2), John Quinn (0-1-2) & Evan Williams (0-1-2) have each gained 1 place from 2 runners since 2004.
Irish trained horses (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places from approximately 9.3% of the total runners. 2 of 3 Irish-trained runners to make the frame had won a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham at November or December meetings, other had won Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown.

Price
Since 2005 (when made a grade 1) 7 of 9 winners were sent off favourite
Favourites (7-1-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 10.54.




Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Irish, French or USA bred gelding
- Sired by a group winner on the flat (that won/placed in group 1)
- Raced on the flat (rated 80+)
- Run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten)
- Won at least twice over hurdles
- Finished in first 3 in Triumph Hurdle last time (posting RPR of 141+)
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1
- Won a hurdles race by 5 or more lengths (or unbeaten over hurdles)
- First 3 in Finesse, Adonis and/or Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
- Favourite has a very strong record.