TOP NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS
The IFB2014.com Top Novices’ Hurdle is a grade 2 race run over 2M ½F. It takes place on the Friday of the Aintree Festival and should feature many of protagonists from the Supreme Novices’ and County Hurdle.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
5yos have won 7 of 10 and filled 16 of 27 places from approximately 49.1% of the total runners. There was no 5yo runner last year.
Mares (0-1-6) have gained no wins and 1 place from their 6 runners.
Irish Bred: 3-9-41
French Bred: 2-4-15
British Bred: 2-4-32
American Bred: 2-0-8
German Bred: 1-0-8
8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winner on flat (both exception sired by group winners that finished in first 4 in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 hurdles previously
1 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (grade 3 handicap hurdle)
5 of 10 winners had placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
6 of 10 winners ran on the flat (4 exceptions had won a bumper)
3 of 3 winners that raced on flat in Britain were rated 90+
Openwork Foundation EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Sgt Reckless): 31 (1-1-2)
Betfair Hurdle winner (Splash Of Ginge): 1 (1-0-1)
Money Advice Group Novices' Hurdle winner (Irish Cavalier): 1 (1-0-1)
William Hill - In The App Store Novices' Hurdle winner (Amore Alato): 252 (0-2-3)
Dolores Purcell Novice Hurdle winner (King Of The Picts): 2 (0-1-1)
Robert Giles Agencies Introductory Hurdle winner (Irving): 3 (0-1-1)
County Hurdle winner (Lac Fontana): 02 (0-1-2)
Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Irving): 4F632 (0-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Supreme Novices Hurdle: 3215P3211 (3-4-9)
Record of horses placed in Supreme: 321311 (3-3-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in Supreme Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 2U22
2 of 10 winners ran in EBF "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) at Cheltenham in Dec, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Betfair H'cap Hurdle, finishing F1
Nicky Henderson (3-2-12) has done really well in this race of late, winning it in 2010 and saddling the 1-2 in the past 2 renewals.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-10) saddled the winner in 2008 and also saddled a placed finisher in 3 other renewals since 2007.
David Pipe (0-1-2) saddled the runner-up in 2007.
Venetia Williams (0-0-2) trained Limerick Boy to win this back in 2003.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-8) have gained 2 places from 8 runners in last 10 runnings.
No strong trends on prices but favourites (3-5-10) have won 3 of the last 10, including last 2, giving a level stakes loss of 2.89.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by group 1 winner on the flat
- Aged 5
- Run in 2 to 5 hurdles (winning 1 to 3)
- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 45 days
- Posted an RPR of 130+ last time
- Won 1 of last 2 runs
- Place in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Had run on the flat (rated 90+ if ran in GB) or won a bumper
- Bypassed Cheltenham or finished in first 3 in Supreme
- Ran in Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February
- Trained by Nicky Henderson.