day2 aintree festival trends

[ganjaman2]

TOP NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS


The IFB2014.com Top Novices’ Hurdle is a grade 2 race run over 2M ½F. It takes place on the Friday of the Aintree Festival and should feature many of protagonists from the Supreme Novices’ and County Hurdle.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-1-13
5yo: 7-9-52
6yo: 1-4-21
7yo: 1-2-16
8yo+: 0-1-4
5yos have won 7 of 10 and filled 16 of 27 places from approximately 49.1% of the total runners. There was no 5yo runner last year.

Gender
Mares (0-1-6) have gained no wins and 1 place from their 6 runners.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 3-9-41
French Bred: 2-4-15
British Bred: 2-4-32
American Bred: 2-0-8
German Bred: 1-0-8
Other: 0-0-2
8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winner on flat (both exception sired by group winners that finished in first 4 in a group 1)

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 hurdles previously
1 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (grade 3 handicap hurdle)
5 of 10 winners had placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
6 of 10 winners ran on the flat (4 exceptions had won a bumper)
3 of 3 winners that raced on flat in Britain were rated 90+

Other races
Openwork Foundation EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Sgt Reckless): 31 (1-1-2)
Betfair Hurdle winner (Splash Of Ginge): 1 (1-0-1)
Money Advice Group Novices' Hurdle winner (Irish Cavalier): 1 (1-0-1)
William Hill - In The App Store Novices' Hurdle winner (Amore Alato): 252 (0-2-3)
Dolores Purcell Novice Hurdle winner (King Of The Picts): 2 (0-1-1)
Robert Giles Agencies Introductory Hurdle winner (Irving): 3 (0-1-1)
County Hurdle winner (Lac Fontana): 02 (0-1-2)
Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Irving): 4F632 (0-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Supreme Novices Hurdle: 3215P3211 (3-4-9)
Record of horses placed in Supreme: 321311 (3-3-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in Supreme Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 2U22
2 of 10 winners ran in EBF "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) at Cheltenham in Dec, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Betfair H'cap Hurdle, finishing F1

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-2-12) has done really well in this race of late, winning it in 2010 and saddling the 1-2 in the past 2 renewals.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-10) saddled the winner in 2008 and also saddled a placed finisher in 3 other renewals since 2007.
David Pipe (0-1-2) saddled the runner-up in 2007.
Venetia Williams (0-0-2) trained Limerick Boy to win this back in 2003.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-8) have gained 2 places from 8 runners in last 10 runnings.

Price
No strong trends on prices but favourites (3-5-10) have won 3 of the last 10, including last 2, giving a level stakes loss of 2.89.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by group 1 winner on the flat
- Aged 5
- Run in 2 to 5 hurdles (winning 1 to 3)
- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 45 days
- Posted an RPR of 130+ last time
- Won 1 of last 2 runs
- Place in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Had run on the flat (rated 90+ if ran in GB) or won a bumper
- Bypassed Cheltenham or finished in first 3 in Supreme
- Ran in Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February
- Trained by Nicky Henderson.

[ganjaman2]

MILDMAY NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014




The Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novice Chase is a grade 1 run over 3 miles 1 furlong and is the second race on Friday 4th April, the second day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:






Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-1-7
6yo: 2-5-15
7yo: 4-9-38
8yo: 1-1-20
9yo: 0-1-9
10yo+: 1-1-3
horses aged 5 to 7: 8-15-60
horses aged 8+: 2-3-32
Aces Four who won it as an 8yo didn’t have his first run until age 5 while Like A Butterfly, who won it aged 11, didn’t have her first run until age 7.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-8-52
French Bred: 5-5-25
British Bred: 0-5-13
Other: 0-0-3
All 10 winners were Irish or French bred, though they represented around 82.6% of total runners. French Bred horses have best individual record, winning 5 of last 10 (including last 3) from 27.2% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
8 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 142+ on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 on all completed chase starts (2 exceptions finished out of first 4 once, in a novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 60 days
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (3 exceptions won over 2M 4F)
10 of 10 winners had their first run in a bumper, point to point or French hurdle
10 of 10 winners had contested a grade 1 chase or hurdle
6 of 10 winners (last 4) had finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase
Excluding chase starts at the Cheltenham Festival, the 10 winners ran in 37 chases. They completed on 34 of those 37 starts, finishing in the first 3 in 33 of 34.

Other races
RSA Chase winner (O'Faolains Boy): U13
Highest placed finisher from RSA Chase winner: U3113554 (2-2-8)
Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner (O'Faolains Boy): 531F3 (1-1-5)
Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 1 (1-0-1)
Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): P1 (1-0-2)
Betfred Goals Galore Extra Novices' Chase winner (Corrin Wood): P33 (0-1-3)
Worcester Novice Chase winner (Just A Par): 54 (0-0-2)
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival (2 of last 3 winners bypassed Cheltenham)
5 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 514P2
2 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in previous year's Sefton Novice or Aintree Hurdle
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Feltham Chase, finishing 21

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-2-13) has trained 3 of last 8 winners of this.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-2) saddled the 3rd in 2008.
Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have gained 2 wins & 1 place from 9 runners (9.8% of total runners).

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced between 7/4 and 7/1
Favourites (4-2-11) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.63.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 7
- French bred
- Run in 3 to 5 chases (winning at least 2)
- Posted an RPR of 142+ last time out
- Finished in first 3 in all chases starts (excluding Cheltenham Festival)
- Won over 3M+ (or 2nd in a 3M grade 1 or 2 chase)
- Had contested a grade 1 chase or hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase
- Had first run under rules in a bumper or hurdle
- Finished in first 5 in the RSA Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Feltham and/or Reynoldstown Novice Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland
- Priced between 7/4 to 7/1.

[ganjaman2]

MELLING CHASE TRENDS 2014




The grade 1 Betfred Melling Chase takes place on Friday 4th April and has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade, including Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run, Master Minded & Sprinter Sacre. Run over 2M 4F, it gives the main protagonists from the Champion Chase and Ryanair a chance to meet, though unfortunately this year’s renewal is missing the first 2 from both those races.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-2
6yo: 0-1-5
7yo: 2-3-9
8yo: 2-4-22
9yo: 4-2-19
10yo: 1-2-15
11yo+: 1-1-7
12yo+: 0-1-2
horses aged 5 to 8: 4-9-38
horses aged 9+: 6-6-43
All 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred. All 6 winners aged 9 or older were Irish bred.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 6-8-39
French Bred: 4-5-31
British Bred: 0-2-10
Other: 0-0-2
All 10 winners were either Irish or French bred.
All 9 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 5 to 8
13 of 14 Irish bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or older
British bred runners gained no wins and just 2 places from 10 runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on last completed start (exceptions were 8th in Queen Mother & 4th in Ryanair)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 165+ in last 2 chase starts (last 6 did so last time out)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that season
7 of 10 winners had run in 15 or more chases in their career (3 exceptions had run in 7 to 8 chases and finished in first 2 in previous year's Arkle)
10 of 10 winners had won at least 5 chases
6 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (4 exceptions were all previous Champion Chase winners)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 that season (exceptions won a grade 2 & finished 2nd in two grade 1's that season)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 at a previous Aintree Festival (2 exceptions were Irish-trained runners, having their first course starts)

Cheltenham Festival
Queen Mother Champion Chase winner: 1211 (3-1-4)
QM Champion Chase highest placed finisher to run in this: P12P272311 (3-4-10)
Ryanair Chase winner: P2122 (1-3-5)
Ryanair Chase highest placed finisher to run in this: 2P211232 (2-5-8)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Ballynagour): 5 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing U12811
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair, finishing 6421
10 of 10 winners ran in Queen Mother Champion or Ryanair Chase that season

Other races
Returning Melling Chase winner: 315124 (2-1-6)
Highest placed finisher to return: 3151F234 (2-2-8)
Previous year's Future Champion Novice Chase winner (Rajdhani Express): 165 (1-0-3)
Game Spirit Chase winner (Module): 4325 (0-1-4)
Powers Irish Whiskey Chase winner (Rolling Along): 7 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 11211
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 636
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in Victor Chandler Chase, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Desert Orchid Chase, finishing 11
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Fortria Chase, finishing 113
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 11
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 21
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Maghulls Novice Chase, finishing 11

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-1-10) has trained the last 2 winners of this.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-12) won this in 2011 with Master Minded.
Moues Morris (0-1-1), Philip Hobbs (0-1-2) and Tom George have all saddled 1 placed finisher since 2004.
Irish-trained runners (3-4-20) won all 5 runnings between 2002 and 2006 but have only filled 2 places in the past 7 renewals.

Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
Only once in the past 10 runnings has the winner come from outside top 4 in the betting.
Favourites (5-2-11) have won 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.22.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Irish bred aged 9+ or French bred aged 5 to 8
- Had at least 15 career chase starts (or finished in first 2 in 2013 Arkle)
- Run 3 to 7 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 165+ last time out
- Ran in this season’s Ryanair or Queen Mother Champion Chase
- Won over 2M 4F+ (or a previous Champion Chase winner)
- Won a grade 1 chase this season
- Ran in the King George this season
- Finished in first 2 in Tingle Creek, Victor Chandler and/or Ascot Chase
- Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet and/or Fortria Chase
- Previously finished in first 3 at Aintree Festival (or having first course start)
- Priced 8/1 or shorter.

[ganjaman2]

TOPHAM CHASE TRENDS 2014




The Crabbie's Topham Chase takes place at Aintree on Friday 4th April. It is a 2M 5½F grade 3 handicap chase run over the Grand National fences. Close to 30 runners line up in this race each year, so it is usually a fine spectacle and a super prelude to the Grand National on the following day.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-15
6yo: 1-2-18
7yo: 1-3-36
8yo: 0-6-56
9yo: 3-9-65
10yo: 3-5-63
11yo+: 1-4-44
horses aged 5 to 8: 3-12-115
horses aged 9 or 10: 6-14-128
horses aged 11 or older: 1-4-44
All 3 winners aged younger than 8 were French bred and last 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred.
Since 1983 there have been 98 runners aged 11+ and the only one that had managed to win this was Always Waining, aged 11 in 2012, when completing a hat-trick of wins in this race.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-6 or more: 3-18-144
horses carrying 10-5 or less: 7-12-143
8 of the 10 winners carried 10-7 or less
The two horses who managed to carry over 10-7 to victory were Gwanako, who had been runner-up in Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham on previous start, and Always Waining, when winning this for third time.
Top Weights: F00BF002F00 (0-1-11). The only top weight to make the frame was Scotsirish (2010) who had previously won two grade 2 chases.

Official Ratings
horses rated 136 or higher: 2-13-87
horses rated 135 or less: 8-17-200
The last 8 winners were officially rated 128 to 141.
horses racing from out of the handicap: 3-5-61
3 of 10 winners were racing from 8 or more pounds out of the handicap. The first 3 home in 2007 and 2009 were all racing from out of the handicap.

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (2 exceptions ran in Kim Muir last time & 2 ran over hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 8 times since August
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had not won over fences that season (2 exceptions had won 1 chase)
8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 6 chases (2 exceptions were French bred chasers aged 5 to 7 that had finished in first 2 in the Byrne Group Plate)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had not won over fences in previous 360 days
8 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more handicap chases (2 exceptions were French breds aged 6 & 7)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F+
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase worth 9K+
9 of 10 (last 9) had contested a graded chase
10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) had run over hurdles that season

Course Form
Record of horses that finished in first 4 the previous year: P4691P7F151031F109 (5-2-18)
Grand Sefton Hcap Chase winner (Rebel Rebellion): F260 (0-1-4)
7 of 10 winners ran in last year's race, finishing 0042411
3 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Sefton in November, finishing 4F6
3 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase in November, finishing 364
8 of 10 winners had raced over the National fences (6 of those 8 had finished in first 4)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Kim Muir: 601U25 (1-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from Byrne Group Plate: F0061F00F (1-0-9)
Fairlawne Handicap Chase winner (Double Ross): F3 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in the Byrne Plate that season or a previous season
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kim Muir last time, 80
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 7P
2 of 10 winners ran in United House Gold Cup, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in Totepool Home of King Size Pool Listed H'cap Chase, finishing 70

Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout the race
4 of 10 winners were held up towards rear until halfway
It appears to be key that you have a runner who likes to be close to the leaders as 30 of the last 34 winners were in the vanguard from halfway.

Trainers
Peter Bowen (4-2-16) has saddled Always Waining to win 3 renewals between 2010 & 2012 and also trained Dunbrody Millar to win this in 2007.
Nicky Henderson (2-0-17) trained the winner in 2006 & 2013.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-26) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-13) have all saddled the winner in the past 6 years, though each has been heavily represented.
Kim Bailey (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.
Liam Cusack (0-1-1) & Donald McCain (0-1-2) both saddled a placed finisher in 2013.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-5) trained the winner in 2003.
Irish trained runners (1-8-58) have won 1 of the last 10 runnings. Willie Mullins (0-4-8) trained the winner in 2002 and has seen 5 of his 8 runners since 2004 make the first 5.

Price
No strong trends on the prices, though 5 of last 6 winners have gone off between 7/1 & 14/1.
Favourites (1-3-11) have won just 1 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 6.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10
- Carrying 10-7 or less
- Officially rated 128 to 141
- Do not discount horses running from out of the handicap
- Finished in first 4 last time out or ran in Kim Muir or over hurdles
- Ran in past 35 days
- Run 3 to 8 times since August
- Previously won 3 to 6 times over fences
- Failed to win over fences this season
- Run in 10 or more handicap chases (or French bred aged 8 or younger)
- Won over 2M 3F+
- Won at a left-handed track
- Has contested a graded chase
- Has run over hurdles this season
- Previously run over the National fences (ideally finished in first 4)
- Finished in first 6 in Grand Sefton or Becher Chase this season
- Finished in first 4 in 2013 Topham Chase
- Previously finished in first 4 in a Byrne Group Plate
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Peter Bowen, Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins

[ganjaman2]

SEFTON NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014


The Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle is a grade 1 race run over 3M ½F. It takes place on the Friday of the Aintree Festival and should see several of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle contenders compete in this.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 2-2-29
6yo: 5-13-67
7yo: 3-2-31
8yo: 0-3-8
9yo+: 0-0-1
All 10 winners have been aged 5 to 7, though that’s hardly surprising considering they have represented 91.4% of the total runners. No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.

Gender
Mares: 10543P (1-1-6) have gained 1 win & 1 place from just 6 runners (4.3% of total runners).
The only 2 female runners priced shorter than 20/1 have been Asian Maze (1st at 7/1) and Sparky May (3rd at 4/1).

Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-15-89
British Bred: 3-4-26
French Bred: 1-1-22
German Bred: 1-0-1
American Bred 0-0-2
Irish bred horses have accounted for almost 63.6% of the total runners, so their return of 5 winners is actually below par.
British bred runners have a fine record, winning 3 of the last 10 from just 18.6% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won or placed last time (2 exceptions were 4th & 8th in Albert Bartlett)
9 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 136+ in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since start of August
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a graded hurdle (1 exception was unbeaten over hurdles & another won a 23K class 2 h'cap hurdle on previous start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+ (exception was placed in a 2M 5F h'cap hurdle on previous run)
9 of 10 winners had begun racing career in a bumper or point to point (exception contested a group race on flat & was rated 92)
Combining each of the 10 winners' last four starts, they made the first 4 in 36 of 39 completed runs (2 exceptions finished 5th & 8th in big field graded hurdles and other was 7th in a Cheltenham novice hurdle on seasonal debut)

Cheltenham Festival
Only 4 of 10 winners ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival, all in Albert Bartlett
Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle winner: 412451 (2-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from the Albert Bartlett Novice hurdle: 412456P1 (2-1-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, finishing 1841

Other races
Highest placed finisher from Prestige Novice Hurdle: 431618 (2-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from River Don Novice Hurdle: 3P310 (1-2-5)
Prestige Novice Hurdle winner (Toubeera): 3168 (1-1-4)
Winter Novices' Hurdle winner (Kilala Quay): 32 (0-2-2)
Michael Purcell Memorial Novice Hurdle winner (Giantofaman): 82 (0-1-2)
32Red.com Novices' Hurdle winner (Sego Success): PF (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestige Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the River Don Novice Hurdle, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 6F hurdle at Wincanton that year

Trainers
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-8) has done well with some long priced runners in this, gaining a 16/1 winner and 2 places at 25/1 & 20/1 from 8 runners since 2004.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-3) trained the winner in 2003 & 2006.
Ian Williams (1-1-3) saddled the winner in 2010 and runner-up in 2005.
Rebecca Curtis (1-0-1) and Alan King (1-0-8) have trained the last 2 winners.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-6) and Paul Nicholls (0-3-10) have both saddled 3 placed finishers since 2004. Peter Bowen (0-2-3) has gained 2 places from 3 runners.
Nicky Henderson (0-0-3) has seen his 3 runners all pull up.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-15) have a poor enough record, gaining just 1 winner from 15 runners, 5 of which went off 7/1 or shorter.

Price
The recent trend has been for longer priced winners with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at 33/1, 9/1, 25/1, 16/1, 20/1 & 8/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 6.01.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- British breds do well
- Finished in first 4 in last 4 starts
- Finished in first 3 last time
- Won 1 of last 2 runs
- Posted an RPR of 136+ in last 2 runs
- Ran in past 50 days
- Run 4 to 8 times since August
- Won or placed in a graded hurdle
- Won over 2M 5F+
- Started career in bumper or point to point
- Finished in first 4 in Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (or bypassed Festival)
- Finished in first 3 in River Don or Prestige Novices’ Hurdle
- Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill, Ian Williams or Philip Hobbs.