MERSEY NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014
The Pertemps Network Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is a grade 1 race run over 2M 4F, which kicks off the Saturday card of the Aintree Festival, 5th April. The race usually sees contenders from the Supreme Novices’ and Neptune Novice Hurdle clash, though this year’s renewal fails to include a single runner from the Neptune.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
8 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, though they accounted for almost 70% of total runners.
Of the three 4yos to make the frame in this, 2 were placed in the Triumph Hurdle last time out and the other missed Cheltenham but won his last hurdles start by 24 lengths.
Mares (0-3-7) have gained 3 places from 7 representatives, all 3 mares priced shorter than 25/1 to run in this were placed.
French Bred: 4-3-20
Irish Bred: 3-13-47
British Bred: 3-4-30
No strong trends on breeding.
6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (3 others finished in first 7 in a Cheltenham grade 1)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 143+ last time (2 exceptions posted a career RPR of 128 to 136 last time)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles (exception ex-flat horses who'd won only previous hurdles start)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
7 of 10 winners had won at least 2 hurdles
5 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (3 others ran in Supreme last time)
Excluding runs at Cheltenham Festival, the 10 winners had collectively had 38 previous runs hurdles the season they won this, finishing in first 4 in 37 of those 38 runs
Neptune Novice Hurdle winner: 11 (2-0-2)
Record of the first 4 in the Neptune: 441131 (3-1-6)
Record of the first 6 from Supreme Novices': 71P61221 (3-2-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in Neptune Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 2117
3 of 10 winners ran in Supreme Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 562
Brown Shipley Wealth Well Managed "Fixed Brush" NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Spirit Of Shankly): 2 (0-1-1)
bet365 "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle winner (Wilde Blue Yonder): 52 (0-1-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rossington Main Novice Hurdle, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in TurfTV "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won a 2M 4F class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot that season
Paul Nicholls (3-2-7) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runners in past 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (2-2-8) has saddled 2 winners and a runner-up in last 3 runnings.
Donald McCain (1-2-7) trained the winner in 2010 and the runner-up in 2008 & 2012.
Alan King (0-3-7) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-8) have both trained multiple placed finishers in past 10 years. Dessie Hughes (0-1-1) won this in 2003 and his only runner in past 10 years was 3rd last year.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-7) have gained 2 places from 7 runners since 2004.
7 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, though there have been winners and 22/1 & 16/1 in past 5 years.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.06.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 or 6
- Ran in past 50 days
- Run in at least 3 hurdles (winning 2 or more)
- Finished in first 4 in all hurdles starts this season
- Finished in first 3 in grade 1 or 2 hurdle (or unbeaten)
- Finished in first 6 in Neptune or Supreme Novice Hurdle last time
- Posted an RPR of 143+ last time
- Won over 2M 4F+ (or finished in first 6 in Supreme Novices’)
- Finished in first 3 in Rossington Main Novice Hurdle
- Won a 2M 4F Ascot novice hurdle this season
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Donald McCain, Alan King or Dessie Hughes.