day3 aintree festival trends

[ganjaman2]

MERSEY NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014




The Pertemps Network Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is a grade 1 race run over 2M 4F, which kicks off the Saturday card of the Aintree Festival, 5th April. The race usually sees contenders from the Supreme Novices’ and Neptune Novice Hurdle clash, though this year’s renewal fails to include a single runner from the Neptune.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-2-15
5yo: 5-7-39
6yo: 3-8-34
7yo: 1-2-13
8yo+: 0-1-1
8 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, though they accounted for almost 70% of total runners.
Of the three 4yos to make the frame in this, 2 were placed in the Triumph Hurdle last time out and the other missed Cheltenham but won his last hurdles start by 24 lengths.

Gender
Mares (0-3-7) have gained 3 places from 7 representatives, all 3 mares priced shorter than 25/1 to run in this were placed.

Breeding
French Bred: 4-3-20
Irish Bred: 3-13-47
British Bred: 3-4-30
Other: 0-0-5
No strong trends on breeding.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (3 others finished in first 7 in a Cheltenham grade 1)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 143+ last time (2 exceptions posted a career RPR of 128 to 136 last time)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles (exception ex-flat horses who'd won only previous hurdles start)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
7 of 10 winners had won at least 2 hurdles
5 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (3 others ran in Supreme last time)
Excluding runs at Cheltenham Festival, the 10 winners had collectively had 38 previous runs hurdles the season they won this, finishing in first 4 in 37 of those 38 runs

Cheltenham Festival
Neptune Novice Hurdle winner: 11 (2-0-2)
Record of the first 4 in the Neptune: 441131 (3-1-6)
Record of the first 6 from Supreme Novices': 71P61221 (3-2-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in Neptune Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 2117
3 of 10 winners ran in Supreme Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 562

Other races
Brown Shipley Wealth Well Managed "Fixed Brush" NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Spirit Of Shankly): 2 (0-1-1)
bet365 "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle winner (Wilde Blue Yonder): 52 (0-1-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rossington Main Novice Hurdle, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in TurfTV "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won a 2M 4F class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot that season

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-2-7) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runners in past 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (2-2-8) has saddled 2 winners and a runner-up in last 3 runnings.
Donald McCain (1-2-7) trained the winner in 2010 and the runner-up in 2008 & 2012.
Alan King (0-3-7) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-8) have both trained multiple placed finishers in past 10 years. Dessie Hughes (0-1-1) won this in 2003 and his only runner in past 10 years was 3rd last year.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-7) have gained 2 places from 7 runners since 2004.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, though there have been winners and 22/1 & 16/1 in past 5 years.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.06.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6
- Ran in past 50 days
- Run in at least 3 hurdles (winning 2 or more)
- Finished in first 4 in all hurdles starts this season
- Finished in first 3 in grade 1 or 2 hurdle (or unbeaten)
- Finished in first 6 in Neptune or Supreme Novice Hurdle last time
- Posted an RPR of 143+ last time
- Won over 2M 4F+ (or finished in first 6 in Supreme Novices’)
- Finished in first 3 in Rossington Main Novice Hurdle
- Won a 2M 4F Ascot novice hurdle this season
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Donald McCain, Alan King or Dessie Hughes.

[ganjaman2]

LIVERPOOL HURDLE TRENDS 2014




The Silver Cross Stayer’s Hurdle (Liverpool Hurdle) now takes place on the supporting card of the Grand National, on Saturday 5th April. It was first run in 2004 and was promoted to grade 1 status in 2010. Run over 3 miles and half a furlong, 9 of last 10 winners had run in the World Hurdle on their previous start.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-9
6yo: 3-6-17
7yo: 4-6-21
8yo: 1-2-26
9yo: 2-2-15
10yo+: 0-0-7
7 of 10 winners have been aged 6 or 7
All 3 winners aged 8+ had won the World Hurdle on their previous start

Breeding
French Bred: 7-5-32
British Bred: 2-3-25
Irish Bred: 1-9-37
German Bred: 0-1-1
7 of last 8 winners were French bred (though Big Buck’s & Mighty Man accounted for 6 of those wins)
Irish bred horses have accounted for over 39% of total runners but only won 1 of 10.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (exception 4th in World Hurdle)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M6F+
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (last 5 had won a grade 1)

Course Form
Previous season's winner: 21111 (4-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from previous year: 2138111 (4-2-7)
Record of 2nd & 3rd from previous year: 38B (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 1204 (1-1-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Liverpool hurdle, finishing 1F111
4 other winners had finished in first 2 in Mildmay Novice Chase, Top, Sefton or Mersey Novice Hurdle while Solwhit didn’t run in previous year’s Aintree Festival but had won the Aintree Hurdle in a previous year.
8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 at previous year’s Aintree Festival (1 exception fell in this)
All 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a race at a previous Aintree Festival
8 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
From a combined 19 previous course runs, the 10 winners made the places in all but 1 Aintree start, that exception being Blazing Bailey's fall in this race in 2007 before winning it the next year.

Other Races
World Hurdle winner (More Of That): 123311111 (6-2-9)
Relkeel Hurdle winner (More Of That): 412P (1-1-4)
Limestone Lad Hurdle winner (Rule The World): 1 (1-0-1)
Coral Cup winner (Whisper): 44P (0-0-3)
9 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle last time, finishing 132411111
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cleeve hurdle, finishing 52211
4 of 10 winners ran in the Long Distance hurdle, finishing 4111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Long Walk hurdle, finishing 1111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Relkeel hurdle, finishing 51
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dornan Engineering Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-0-9) saddled Big Buck’s to win this 4 times between 2009 & 2012.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-7) has saddled a winner & 2 seconds in this race.
Donald McCain (0-1-2) trained the third in 2012.
Nicky Henderson (0-0-5) has seen his 5 runners all finish unplaced.
Irish-trained runners (1-2-8) have gained a win and 2 places from 8 runners in this.

Price
10 of 10 winners were sent off 11/2 or shorter
All 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting, however there have been some long-priced placed finishers, 2 x 14/1, 2 x 16/1, 20/1, 33/1, 50/1, 66/1 & 80/1.
Favourite (6-3-10) have won 6 of the 9 runnings but still only show a small level stakes profit of 0.99.


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred
- Aged 6 or 7 (or a previous World Hurdle winner)
- Run 2 to 5 times this season
- Won a grade 1 or 2 over 2M 6F+
- Course winner
- Finished in first 3 in World Hurdle last time
- Posted an RPR of 157+ last time
- Won or placed on all course starts
- Finished 1st or 2nd at the 2013 Aintree Festival
- Finished in first 4 in Cleeve Long Walk and/or Long Distance Hurdle
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Jonjo O’Neill
- Priced 11/2 or shorter.