SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2014

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The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday 12th April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. With this year's renewal taking place just 7 days after the Aintree Grand National, it's unlikely many runners from Aintree will be taking part.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-3-10
7yo: 1-8-41
8yo: 3-4-59
9yo: 2-6-47
10yo: 2-5-44
11yo+: 2-4-47
Age of the winners has been fairly spread out.
In 2009 Hello Bud (aged 11) became the first horse aged over 10 to won the race since 1996. Merigo followed up that feat when winning the race for a second time in 2012, also at age 11. Both 11yo winners won their previous start, in a handicap chase over 3M+, posting an RPR of 140 in the process.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-18-134
French Bred: 3-7-65
British Bred: 2-4-42
American Bred: 0-1-5
NZ bred: 0-0-2
No very strong trends on breeding, though in past 6 years French breds have won 3 and Irish breds have won other 3.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 1-1-23
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-3-16
horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 1-11-61
horses carrying 10-0 to 10-6: 4-14-114
horses carrying 9-13 or less: 3-1-34
7 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, though they represented 59.7% of total runners.
The only 3 winners to carry more than 10-6 to victory were Irish bred chasers.
Top Weight: 51P0P2PP6P (1-1-10)
Both top weights to make the frame had previously finished in first 5 in the race.
horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-12-101
horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins and 1 place from 6 runners, the other 3 all fell or unseated.

Official Ratings
horses rated 144+: 2-6-44
horses rated 132-143: 6-20-140
horses rated 131 or below: 2-4-60
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower
The 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out, and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start but only carried 10-4. Both had posted a career high RPR of 149+ on previous start.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (4 won)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 135+ last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
8 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (2 exceptions placed in a chase worth 45K+)
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 to 4 chase but no higher (2 exceptions had won a graded chase at a previous Scottish Grand National meeting)
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was 2nd on only run over 3M+)
7 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (3 exceptions ran in a novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
4 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (5 others were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had first career run in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race

Aintree Festival
In the last 10 years 22 horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, finishing PP95P4PPP000PU695P00PP (0-1-22)
Since 2000 2 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, on both those occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals, unlike this year, where there is just one.

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Godsmejudge): 42 (0-2-2)
Highest placed finisher from last year's race to return: 65040221P (1-3-9)
Record of placed finishers from previous Scottish National: 6250UP62071P (1-2-14)
Record of first 3 from 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham: PPP1P1 (2-0-6)
The Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Novice H'cap Chase has thrown up some horses that have run well in this, in 2008 it was won by Merigo (Scottish National winner in 2010 & 2012) and in 2010 it was won by Auroras Encore (2012 Scottish National runner-up).
2 of 3 novice chaser winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Grimthorpe H'cap Chase last time, finishing 16
3 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, (1 pulled up in Centenary Novice Handicap chase and other two placed in 4M Novice Chase)
Since 2000 three winners had finished in first 7 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

Trainers
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-8) trained the winner in 1992 & 1994 and more recently in 2009. He has seen 4 of his 8 runners in past 10 years make the places.
Alan King (1-2-8) trained Godsmejudge to win this last year and has seen 3 of his 8 runners make the frame.
Tim Vaughan (1-0-2) trained Beshabar to win this in 2011.
Philip Hobbs (0-4-9) has seen 4 of his 9 runners get placed.
Sue Smith (0-2-12) has saddled a couple placed runners since 2004 while Paul Nicholls (0-2-17) has also saddled several fancied runners in the past 10 years, yet he has not won the race and only gained 2 places from 17 runners.
Nicky Richards (0-1-3), Tom George (0-1-4), Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-4), David Pipe (0-1-8). Venetia Williams (0-1-8) & Lucinda Russell (0-1-9) have all saddled a placed finisher since 2004.
Donald McCain (0-0-3), Jonjo O’Neill (0-0-4) and Nicky Henderson (0-0-6) have not had much luck in this, seeing their collective 13 runners all finish unplaced in past 10 runnings.
Irish trained runners: 3F000BP8PF8P0P (0-1-14) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 14 runners since 2004.

Racing Tactics
3 of 10 winners made all (or virtually all)
3 of 10 winners ran behind the leader(s)
1 of 10 winners raced in midfield
3 of 10 winners were held up
In recent years those horses that have gone from the front have done best in this race and 4 of the last 7 winners led from before halfway.

Price
No strong trends on prices. 7 of 10 winners were priced between 15/2 and 18/1 though there have been a few big shocks with a 66/1 winner in 2008 and 33/1 in 2006.
Favourite (0-4-13) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 10 (or an 11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 140+)
- French or Irish bred favoured
- Carrying 10-6 or less
- Officially rated 143 or lower
- Respect any horse carrying a penalty
- Run 3 to 6 times this season
- Finished in the first 6 last time & posted RPR of 135+
- Won over 3M+
- Posted their career high RPR of 137+ in a chase over 3M 4F+
- Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (or won a graded chase at this meeting in 2013)
- Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)
- Run in at least 10 chases (or ran in novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
- Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)
- Had first career start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race
- Bypassed 2014 Aintree Grand National
- Finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup
- Ran in the Grimthorpe, 4M NH Novice Chase or Somerset National last time
- Trained in Great Britain (ideally by N Twiston-Davies, P Hobbs or A King)
- Tends to lead or race prominently.