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    Default IRISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2014

    The Boylesports Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 20th April. Unlike the past 2 renewals, this year’s renewal takes places after the Aintree equivalent, which means there will be may be a few more raiders travelling over from Great Britain. Lesser exposed chasers have dominated the race in recent years.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-2-14
    7yo: 2-7-54
    8yo: 3-7-73
    9yo: 1-7-62
    10yo: 3-5-48
    11yo: 0-1-13
    12yo+: 0-1-4
    horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-141
    horses aged 9 or older: 4-14-127
    6 of last 8 winners have been aged 6 to 8
    There has been no winners aged over 10 in past 10 years. There have been 3 winners aged 11+ in past 30 years, all 3 were trained in Great Britain.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    horses carrying 10-6 or more: 1-12-105
    horses carrying 10-5 or less: 9-18-163
    The last 10 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.
    Of the 35 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-2-35), none have won and only 2 made the places.
    Record of top weight: PPPPPFFP8P (0-0-10), only 1 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
    3 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.

    Official Ratings
    horses rated 137 or higher: 0-10-77
    horses rated 125 to 136: 9-15-168
    horses rated 124 or lower: 1-5-23
    Last 9 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
    Since 2007 all 6 winners and 26 of 28 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 140.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 8-22-203
    French bred: 2-5-36
    British bred: 0-3-22
    German bred: 0-0-1
    USA bred: 0-0-6
    8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 75.7% of the total runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 5 places from approximately 13.4% of the total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start (2 exceptions were unplaced in a grade A h’cap chase & 2 others unplaced at Cheltenham Festival)
    7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ on last completed chase start
    8 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
    9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
    10 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track
    10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
    8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M point to point)
    10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 12 chases
    10 of 10 winners had finished first past post in 2 to 4 chases
    10 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 4)
    9 of 10 winners had won 2 or less handicap chases
    7 of 7 Irish-trained winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
    5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in Ten Up Novice Chase)
    8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers
    7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were placed in a class 2 or higher chase)
    7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 19K+ (2 exceptions placed in a race worth 19K+)
    10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point

    Other Races
    Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): U0F1 (1-0-4)
    Troytown winner (Cootamundra): 2P2P (0-2-4)
    Leinster National winner (Gallant Oscar): U04P (0-1-4)
    Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 00 (0-0-2)
    Daily Mirror Chase winner (Yes Tom): RP (0-0-2)
    Munster National winner (Double Seven): 0F (0-0-2)
    Breakfast With Hector H'cap Chase winner (Goonyella): 00 (0-0-2)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (My Murphy): FU5 (0-0-3)
    Carrickmines Handicap Chase winner (Pass The Hat): P58 (0-0-3)
    Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Folsom Blue): 80P (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that year or previous year
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 07
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing 10
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Munster National, finishing 0P
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 31
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 1F
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41

    Trainers
    British trained runners (3-3-22) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years.
    No trainer has saddled more than 1 winner in the past 10 years. Trainers who have gained a win and a placed finisher include Arthur Moore (1-4-12) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-5).
    Thomas Gibney (1-0-1), Mouse Morris (1-0-3) & Martin Brassil (1-0-4) have each trained the winner in past 10 years.
    Dessie Hughes (0-3-15) last trained the winner in 2003 and has seen 3 of his 15 runners in last 10 runnings make the places.
    Oliver McKiernan (0-2-5) and Tony Martin (0-2-15) have also both had a couple of placed runners in the past 10 years.
    Several big Irish trainers have done poorly in this race in the past decade such as Willie Mullins (0-2-19), Noel Meade (0-0-15), Tony Martin (0-1-12), Charlie Swan (0-0-10), & Tom Taaffe (0-0-5).

    Racing Tactics
    9 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division early on
    1 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout

    Price
    It has been a race for outsiders, with 7 of last 10 winners priced between 20/1 & 50/1.
    Favourites (0-2-12) have gained no wins and just 2 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00. You have to go back to 1999 for last winning favourite, and that was a co-favourite of five.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Irish or French bred
    - Aged 6 to 10
    - Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
    - Officially rated 128 to 140
    - Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
    - Posted an RPR of 133+ over fences this season
    - Won over 3M+
    - Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
    - Won a chase at right-handed track
    - Previously won a chase Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
    - Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
    - Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
    - Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
    - Ran in this season’s Munster National, Paddy Power and/or Thyestes Chase
    - Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
    - Finished in first 4 in 2013 or 2014 Ten Up Novice Chase
    - Finished in first 5 in 2013 or 2014 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
    - Trained in Great Britain (especially by Jonjo O’Neill) or
    - Trained by, Arthur Moore or a smaller Irish yard.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    neilb (8th April 2014) 


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