The Boylesports Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 20th April. Unlike the past 2 renewals, this year’s renewal takes places after the Aintree equivalent, which means there will be may be a few more raiders travelling over from Great Britain. Lesser exposed chasers have dominated the race in recent years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-14
7yo: 2-7-54
8yo: 3-7-73
9yo: 1-7-62
10yo: 3-5-48
11yo: 0-1-13
12yo+: 0-1-4
horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-141
horses aged 9 or older: 4-14-127
6 of last 8 winners have been aged 6 to 8
There has been no winners aged over 10 in past 10 years. There have been 3 winners aged 11+ in past 30 years, all 3 were trained in Great Britain.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-6 or more: 1-12-105
horses carrying 10-5 or less: 9-18-163
The last 10 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.
Of the 35 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-2-35), none have won and only 2 made the places.
Record of top weight: PPPPPFFP8P (0-0-10), only 1 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
3 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.
Official Ratings
horses rated 137 or higher: 0-10-77
horses rated 125 to 136: 9-15-168
horses rated 124 or lower: 1-5-23
Last 9 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
Since 2007 all 6 winners and 26 of 28 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 140.
Breeding
Irish bred: 8-22-203
French bred: 2-5-36
British bred: 0-3-22
German bred: 0-0-1
USA bred: 0-0-6
8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 75.7% of the total runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 5 places from approximately 13.4% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start (2 exceptions were unplaced in a grade A h’cap chase & 2 others unplaced at Cheltenham Festival)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
10 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M point to point)
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 12 chases
10 of 10 winners had finished first past post in 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 4)
9 of 10 winners had won 2 or less handicap chases
7 of 7 Irish-trained winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in Ten Up Novice Chase)
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were placed in a class 2 or higher chase)
7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 19K+ (2 exceptions placed in a race worth 19K+)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point
Other Races
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): U0F1 (1-0-4)
Troytown winner (Cootamundra): 2P2P (0-2-4)
Leinster National winner (Gallant Oscar): U04P (0-1-4)
Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 00 (0-0-2)
Daily Mirror Chase winner (Yes Tom): RP (0-0-2)
Munster National winner (Double Seven): 0F (0-0-2)
Breakfast With Hector H'cap Chase winner (Goonyella): 00 (0-0-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (My Murphy): FU5 (0-0-3)
Carrickmines Handicap Chase winner (Pass The Hat): P58 (0-0-3)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Folsom Blue): 80P (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that year or previous year
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 07
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing 10
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Munster National, finishing 0P
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 31
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41
Trainers
British trained runners (3-3-22) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years.
No trainer has saddled more than 1 winner in the past 10 years. Trainers who have gained a win and a placed finisher include Arthur Moore (1-4-12) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-5).
Thomas Gibney (1-0-1), Mouse Morris (1-0-3) & Martin Brassil (1-0-4) have each trained the winner in past 10 years.
Dessie Hughes (0-3-15) last trained the winner in 2003 and has seen 3 of his 15 runners in last 10 runnings make the places.
Oliver McKiernan (0-2-5) and Tony Martin (0-2-15) have also both had a couple of placed runners in the past 10 years.
Several big Irish trainers have done poorly in this race in the past decade such as Willie Mullins (0-2-19), Noel Meade (0-0-15), Tony Martin (0-1-12), Charlie Swan (0-0-10), & Tom Taaffe (0-0-5).
Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division early on
1 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout
Price
It has been a race for outsiders, with 7 of last 10 winners priced between 20/1 & 50/1.
Favourites (0-2-12) have gained no wins and just 2 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00. You have to go back to 1999 for last winning favourite, and that was a co-favourite of five.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish or French bred
- Aged 6 to 10
- Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
- Officially rated 128 to 140
- Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
- Posted an RPR of 133+ over fences this season
- Won over 3M+
- Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
- Won a chase at right-handed track
- Previously won a chase Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
- Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
- Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
- Ran in this season’s Munster National, Paddy Power and/or Thyestes Chase
- Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
- Finished in first 4 in 2013 or 2014 Ten Up Novice Chase
- Finished in first 5 in 2013 or 2014 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
- Trained in Great Britain (especially by Jonjo O’Neill) or
- Trained by, Arthur Moore or a smaller Irish yard.
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