The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Wednesday 16th April. It is a group 3 run over 7 furlongs and is one of the main trials for the 1000 Guineas.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Race for 3yo fillies
9 of 10 winners were by a sire who won a group 1 over a mile or shorter at 2 or 3
Pivotal progeny: 1041 (2-0-4)
Only 6 fillies have carried a 3lb penalty in this since 2004, 2 have won and the other 4 were placed.
9 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (exception was 3rd in a Kempton condition stakes)
10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had their last start between 19th September and 3rd November
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (3 of 5 exceptions won their maiden on last start and other 2 had placed in listed company)
5 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket on their previous turf start
4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (4 exceptions had not run here and 1 other was placed on only course start in a listed race)
Highest placed finisher from the Rockfel: 03110 (2-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from the Albany Stakes: 102683 (1-2-6)
Coolmore Stud European Breeders Fund Sprint Stakes winner (Sandiva): 2 (0-1-1)
Star Stakes winner (Majeyda): 59 (0-0-2)
Finjaan Standing Maiden Fillies Stakes winner (Miss Lillie): 40 (0-0-2)
British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes winner (Lamar): 66 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Firth Of Clyde Stakes, finishing 03
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Albany Stakes, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lowther Stakes, finishing 95
John Gosden (2-1-7) trained the winner in 2005 & 2008.
Richard Fahey (1-1-3) trained the winner in 2011 and a placed finisher in 2012.
Michael Stoute (0-0-6) has seen his 6 runners since 2004 finish unplaced.
No strong trends on prices though last 3 winners went off 14/1, 28/1 & 10/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.70.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a filly:
- Sired by horse who won a group 1 as a 2yo or 3yo
- Having first turf start of the season
- Had last turf run between 19th September and 3rd November
- Won a race over 6F to 8F as a 2yo
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Won a group or listed race (or won maiden last time out)
- Ran at Newmarket on last turf start
- Finished in first 3 in Rockfel, Albany and/or Firth Of Clyde Stakes
- Trained by John Gosden or Richard Fahey.