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    Default NELL GWYN STAKES TRENDS 2014

    The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Wednesday 16th April. It is a group 3 run over 7 furlongs and is one of the main trials for the 1000 Guineas.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    Race for 3yo fillies

    Breeding
    9 of 10 winners were by a sire who won a group 1 over a mile or shorter at 2 or 3
    Pivotal progeny: 1041 (2-0-4)

    Weight
    Only 6 fillies have carried a 3lb penalty in this since 2004, 2 have won and the other 4 were placed.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (exception was 3rd in a Kempton condition stakes)
    10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo
    9 of 10 winners had their last start between 19th September and 3rd November
    10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F
    5 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (3 of 5 exceptions won their maiden on last start and other 2 had placed in listed company)
    5 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket on their previous turf start
    4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (4 exceptions had not run here and 1 other was placed on only course start in a listed race)

    Other Races
    Highest placed finisher from the Rockfel: 03110 (2-1-5)
    Highest placed finisher from the Albany Stakes: 102683 (1-2-6)
    Coolmore Stud European Breeders Fund Sprint Stakes winner (Sandiva): 2 (0-1-1)
    Star Stakes winner (Majeyda): 59 (0-0-2)
    Finjaan Standing Maiden Fillies Stakes winner (Miss Lillie): 40 (0-0-2)
    British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes winner (Lamar): 66 (0-0-2)
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Firth Of Clyde Stakes, finishing 03
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Albany Stakes, finishing 13
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Lowther Stakes, finishing 95

    Trainers
    John Gosden (2-1-7) trained the winner in 2005 & 2008.
    Richard Fahey (1-1-3) trained the winner in 2011 and a placed finisher in 2012.
    Michael Stoute (0-0-6) has seen his 6 runners since 2004 finish unplaced.

    Price
    No strong trends on prices though last 3 winners went off 14/1, 28/1 & 10/1.
    Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.70.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a filly:


    - Sired by horse who won a group 1 as a 2yo or 3yo
    - Having first turf start of the season
    - Had last turf run between 19th September and 3rd November
    - Won a race over 6F to 8F as a 2yo
    - Course winner (or having first run here)
    - Won a group or listed race (or won maiden last time out)
    - Ran at Newmarket on last turf start
    - Finished in first 3 in Rockfel, Albany and/or Firth Of Clyde Stakes
    - Trained by John Gosden or Richard Fahey.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (14th April 2014) 


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