CRAVEN STAKES TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The Group 3 Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Thursday 18th April. It is run over the Rowley Mile, the same course and distance the 2000 Guineas will be run over in early May. The last horse to do the double was Haafhd in 2004.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Weight
horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 874196211 (3-1-9)

Breeding
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in a 1M group 1 at 2 or 3 years old
10 of 10 winners were born no later than 7th April

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo
8 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (2 exceptions were placed first time out and won second start)
7 of 9 British-trained winners made their debut as a 2yo at Newmarket (2 exceptions both from Hannon yard & made debut at Newbury)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 82+ on first career start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 108+ on last start
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (2 exceptions having first course start)
9 of 10 winners (last 8) had won over 7F+
9 of 10 winners contested a group race as a 2yo (5 won, 2 placed, 2 unplaced in Dewhurst), 1 exception was unbeaten in 2 runs
9 of 9 British-trained winners ran at Newmarket or Doncaster on their previous start
10 of 10 winners had last start between 15th September and 3rd November

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Champagne Stakes: 1813411 (4-1-7)
Highest placed finisher from Dewhurst: 271211 (3-2-6)
July Stakes winner (Anjaal): 2 (0-1-1)
4 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 3311
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst last time out, finishing 3755
2 of 2 Richard-Hannon trained winners ran in Winkfield Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy last time out, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Solario Stakes, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Weatherbys EBF Maiden at Newmarket in July, finishing 11
7 of 10 winners had won a 2yo maiden at Newmarket over 6F to 1M between July & November

Trainers
The Richard Hannon yard (2-4-14) were responsible for the winner in 2001, 2003 and also the first 2 home for the past 2 years.

Price
9 of 10 winners (last 8) came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 12/1 and the only winner were sent off bigger than 9/2 since 2004.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10, including 4 of the last 5 but show a level stakes loss of 0.72.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sire won or placed in a 1M group 1 as a 2 or 3 year old
- Having first run of the season
- Won a race over 7F+ as a 2yo
- Won on first start as a 2yo, posting RPR of 82+ (ideally at Newmarket)
- Contested a group race or unbeaten
- Had last run at Newmarket or Doncaster between 15/09/13 & 04/11/13
- Posted an RPR of 108+ on last outing
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Finished in first 4 in Solario, Winkfield and/or Champagne Stakes
- Finished in first 4 in Racing Post Trophy or Dewhurst Stakes last time
- Trained by Richard Hannon
- From first 3 in the betting.