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    Default POWERS GOLD CUP TRENDS 2014

    The Powers Gold Cup is the highlight of the first day of the Irish Grand National meeting, which begins on Sunday 20th April. It’s a grade 1 novice chase run over 2M 4F and usually attracts many of the best Irish novice chasers that skipped Cheltenham.


    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-4-14
    7yo: 4-9-35
    8yo: 3-1-17
    9yo: 1-0-12
    10yo: 0-0-1
    11yo: 1-0-1
    No very strong age trends though 7 & 8 year olds have won 7 of last 10, including the last 5, though they have represented 65% of the total runners in past 10 years.

    Gender
    Like A Butterfly, who won this in 2005, has been the only female runner in past 10 years. She was also anomalous by virtue of being aged 11, only winner aged over 9 in past 30 years.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 10-9-59
    British bred: 0-2-7
    French bred: 0-2-11
    USA bred: 0-1-1
    German bred: 0-0-2
    The last 10 winners have been Irish bred, though they have represented almost 73.75% of the total runners. The two USA bred horses to run in this since 2000 gained a win and a place.
    Progeny of Beneficial: 6141 (2-0-4)
    Progeny of Old Vic: 2721 (1-2-4)
    Progeny of Flemensfirth: P1 (1-0-2)

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception finished 5th in the RSA Chase)
    10 of 10 winners won on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted their highest chase RPR last time out
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138+ last time (last 3 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time)
    9 of 10 winners had their last run in the past 60 days
    10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences
    9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception yet to run over further than 2M 2F)
    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on chase debut (2 exceptions fell)
    7 of 10 posted an RPR of 129+ on first chase start
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (1 exception was 3rd in a Grade B Handicap Hurdle worth 51K+ & other was a 14 length winner on only completed hurdles start)
    7 of 10 winners were officially rated 127+ over hurdles (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 4 in a grade 2 hurdle but had no hurdles rating)
    7 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (3 exceptions had won just once over fences)
    9 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 13K+ (exception had yet to run in a race worth 13K+)
    10 of 10 winners had first start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race

    Other races
    Highest placed finisher from Irish Arkle: 22UF2711 (2-2-8)
    Highest placed finisher from Greenmount Park Novice Chase: 113 (2-0-3)
    Craddockstown Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 11 (2-0-2)
    Previous season's Moscow Novice Hurdle winner (Mozoltov): 21 (1-1-2)
    Naas Directors Plate Novice Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): F12 (1-1-3)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Ballycasey): 1 (1-0-1)
    Flyingbolt Novice Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): 336 (0-2-3)
    navanracecourse.ie Novice Chase winner (Mozoltov): 3 (0-1-1)
    Punchestown For Events Beginners Chase winner (Felix Younger): 2 (0-1-1)
    P J Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Ballycasey): 73 (0-1-2)
    Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3344 (0-1-4)
    Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Mozoltov): 6P52 (0-1-4)
    Dermot Fagan Lifetime Achievement In Racing Beginners Chase winner (Foxrock): 44 (0-0-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Arkle Novice Chase, finishing 311
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing PU1
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing 62
    2 of 10 winners ran in the P.J. Moriarty Chase, finishing 33
    2 of 10 winners ran in Greenmount Novice Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, finishing 11
    5 of 10 winners (last 5) gained their first chase win at Navan
    3 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle over 2M to 2M 4F at previous year’s National meeting

    Trainers
    Noel Meade (2-1-6) has won the race 3 times since 2003 from just 7 representatives.
    Gordon Elliot (1-0-3) won this race in 2013.
    Willie Mullins (0-3-15) has gained just 3 places from his 17 runners since 2000 and several of those were well fancied (2 were sent off favourite). He has yet to train the winner of this.
    Dessie Hughes (0-2-3) has saddled the runner-up twice in past 10 years.
    Ted Walsh hasn’t saddled a runner in last 10 year, his last runner was Rince Ri in 1999, who won it.

    Price
    7 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter, though there have been some upsets recently with Jadanli at 25/1 in 2010 and Realt Mor at 10/1 in 2013.
    Favourites (2-5-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.40.

    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Irish bred (progeny of Beneficial & Old Vic do well)
    - Finished in first 3 last time out in past 60 days
    - Posted an RPR of 138+ last time
    - Finished in first 3 on their chasing debut
    - Won 1 of their last 2 completed chase starts
    - Won over 2M 4F+
    - Won a graded chase (or won just once over fences)
    - Won a NH race worth 19K+
    - Finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (rated 129+ over hurdles)
    - Had first ever run in a bumper, point to point or hurdles race
    - Gained first chase success at Navan
    - Ran in the Racing Post and/or Drinmore Novice Chase
    - Finished in first 3 in Irish Arkle and/or Dr. PJ Moriarty Novice Chase
    - Trained by Noel Meade

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (15th April 2014), neilb (15th April 2014) 


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