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    Default PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP TRENDS 2014

    Strangely before 1999 there was no grade 1 chase for Gold Cup horses at Punchestown but now the Bibby Financial Services Punchestown Gold Cup is the highlight of the meeting for many race fans. The race, which takes place on Wednesday 30th April, is run over 3M 1F and On His Own will be looking to follow in last year’s winner Sir Des Champ’s footsteps, by finishing runner-up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and then taking this.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-0-1
    7yo: 4-1-13
    8yo: 4-7-25
    9yo: 1-5-22
    10yo: 0-2-11
    11yo+: 0-2-12
    horses aged 6 to 8: 9-8-39
    horses aged 9 or older: 1-9-45
    9 of 10 runnings of this race have been won by horses aged 6 to 8.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 5-15-60
    French bred: 4-2-18
    British bred: 1-0-5
    German bred: 0-0-1
    Irish bred horses have won 5 of last 10 but they have represented 75.6% of the total runners.
    French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from 21.4% of the total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (both exceptions down the field in Cheltenham Gold Cup & Ryanair)
    9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 156+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs
    10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 7 chases since September
    9 of 10 winners had won that season
    10 of 10 had run 9 to 15 times over fences
    10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
    9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)
    7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (3 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
    7 of 10 winners were course winners (2 of 3 exceptions were having first course start while other was 7th in previous year's Gold Cup)

    Other races
    Record of horses who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 215514P21 (3-2-9)
    Star Best For Racing Coverage Chase winner (Toner D'Oudairies): 1P (1-0-2)
    Lexus Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 2 (0-1-1)
    Melling Chase winner (Boston Bob): 3 (0-0-1)
    Bobbyjo Chase winner (On His Own): 5 (0-0-1)
    Charlie Hall Chase winner (Harry Topper): 4 (0-0-1)
    Webster Cup Chase winner (Bog Warrior): 4P (0-0-2)
    Red Mills Chase winner (Argocat): 57U4P (0-0-5)
    7 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 4118382
    4 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 1152
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 251
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 324
    3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in the previous year's Arkle, finishing 273 (one other won the previous year's Jewson Novice Chase)
    2 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in the previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B1
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Clonmel Oil Chase, finishing 31
    2 of 10 winners ran in this race previous year, finishing 17
    2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Argento Chase, finishing F3

    Trainers
    Mouse Morris (2-2-5) and Paul Nicholls (2-0-6) have both trained the winner twice since 2006.
    Willie Mullins (1-5-11) has won the race just twice (in 2002 with Florida Pearl & last year with Sir Des Champs). 6 of his 11 runners in past 10 runnings have made the places.
    Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) trained Kicking King to win this in 2005.
    Dessie Hughes (0-3-7) has seen 3 of his 7 runners make the frame in past 10 runnings.
    British-based trainers (3-2-23) don’t actually have that good a record in this race, especially when you remove Neptune Collonges’ 2 runs in the race, their record becomes just 1 winner and 2 place from 21 runners (9 of those 21 were sent off shorter than 7/1 and 8 of those 9 were unplaced including the 2 of last 3 favourites).

    Price
    6 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
    There have been shocks in 3 of last 4 years with the winners going off 14/1, 20/1 & 20/1 while 6 of the other 10 winners were sent off favourite.
    Favourites (6-2-10) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.55.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 to 8
    - French bred
    - Finished in first 4 last time (or unplaced in a grade 1 at Cheltenham)
    - Ran in past 40 days
    - Run in 3 to 7 chases this season (winning at least 1)
    - Run 9 to 15 times over fences in their career
    - Second or third season chaser
    - Won over 2M 7F+
    - Won a grade 1 chase (2nd or 3rd at the very least)
    - Previous course winner (or having first start here)
    - Finished in first 4 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
    - Finished in first 5 in Lexus, Irish Hennessy and/or John Durkan Memorial
    - Trained in Ireland (especially by Mouse Morris) or by Paul Nicholls
    - Favourite does well.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (18th April 2014) 


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