PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The Boylesports.com Champion Chase is the highlight of the first day of the 2014 Punchestown Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 29th April. Unfortunately neither last year’s winner, Sprinter Sacre, nor this year’s Queen Mother winner, Sire De Grugy, will be taking part.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 2-0-3
7yo: 1-1-4
8yo: 3-6-22
9yo: 1-2-18
10yo: 3-1-13
11yo+: 0-2-10
6yos have won the last 2 of the last 6 runnings of this race and failed to have a representative in the other 4 runnings since 2008.
All 3 winners aged 10 had previously won the Queen Mother and had run well in this race previously (Sizing Europe & Big Zeb had both finished 2nd before winning aged 10, Moscow Flyer unseated when looking the likely winner the year before he won it aged 10).

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-10-46
French bred: 5-2-13
British bred: 0-0-7
Other: 0-0-4
10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred but younger French breds and older Irish bred horses have held the edge.
French bred horses aged 6 to 8: 5-1-8
French bred horses age 9+: 0-1-5
Irish bred horses aged 6 to 8: 1-6-15
Irish bred horses age 9+: 4-4-31
4 of 5 French bred winners began their NH career in an Auteuil Hurdle.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners won last time out (3 of 4 others finished in first 6 in Queen Mother)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 166+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the previous 50 days
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won multiple grade 1 chases
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (exception had 10 runs)
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases that season
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases (winning at least 4)
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception had won previous season's Queen Mother & previously finished 2nd in this race)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 2F+

Other races
Highest placed finisher from Champion Chase: 214712211 (4-3-9)
Previous season's Maghull Novice Chase winner (Special Tiara): 141 (2-0-3)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Twinlight): 13145 (2-0-5)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 12 (1-1-2)
Dan Moore Memorial Chase winner (Turban): 441 (1-0-3)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Twinlight): P3 (0-0-2)
Paddy Power Your Local Betting Shop Chase winner (Days Hotel): 35643 (0-0-5)
8 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing U1616221
5 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 11111
4 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 1411
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners (last 3) ran in the Tied Cottage, finishing 221
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Fortria Chase, finishing 1U1
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing U22
3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in the Victor Chandler Chase, finishing 211
2 of 3 British-trained winners won previous year's Maghulls Novice Chase
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Red Mills Chase, finishing 12
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 11
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Melling Chase last time, finishing 11
9 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (8 in Queen Mother & 1 in Ryanair)

Trainers
British based trainers (3-1-10) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 15.3% of the total runners.
Henry De Bromhead (1-3-6) has trained Sizing Europe to win this in 2012 and be placed in 2010, 2011 & 2013.
Willie Mullins (1-0-8) trained the winner in 2001 & 2010 but 7 of his 8 runners in the past 10 years have been unplaced.
Mouse Morris (0-1-3) trained Fota Island to finish a distant 2nd in 2006.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
All 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no horse priced over 12/1 has made the places since 2004.
Favourites (6-3-10) have won 6 of last 10 but only show a level stakes profit of 0.14.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 6 to 8 or Irish bred aged 9+
- Run in the past 50 days
- Won last time out (or finished 2nd to 6th in Queen Mother)
- Posted an RPR of 166+ last time
- Won a grade 1 chase (preferably multiple grade 1’s)
- Has run 3 to 5 times season, winning at least twice
- Run at least 8 times over fences, winning at least four
- Second or third season chaser (or previous Queen Mother winner)
- Finished in the first 6 in the Queen Mother Champion Chase
- Won the Tingle Creek, Melling and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase
- First 2 in Hilly Way, Tied Cottage, Victor Chandler and/or 2013 Punchestown Champion Chase
- Won a chase over 2M 2F+
- Trained in Britain
- Priced 8/1 or lower (favourite does well).