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    Default WORLD SERIES HURDLE TRENDS 2014

    The highlight of day 3 of the Punchestown Festival, on Thursday 1st May, is the grade 1 Ladbrokes World Series Hurdle. This race is run over 3 miles and usually attracts the best staying hurdlers from Britain and Quevega, who has won the past 4 runnings, will be looking to make it 5 in a row. It’s worth noting though that its Cheltenham equivalent has been a very poor guide to this race.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-3-7
    6yo: 2-2-16
    7yo: 3-7-29
    8yo: 3-5-19
    9yo: 1-1-12
    10yo: 0-0-7
    11yo+: 1-0-6
    horses aged 5 to 7: 5-12-52
    horses aged 8 or older: 5-6-44
    The ages of the winners has been quite well spread out though in recent years younger horses have held the call with 8 of the last 10 winners aged 6 to 8 and only 2 horses aged above 8 have made the frame in the past 10 years, both trained in Britain.

    Gender
    Mares (6-3-12) received a 7lb allowance and have made the most of that, gaining 6 wins and 3 places from just 12 runners. 6 of last 8 runnings have gone to mares, one of the other runnings had no female runners while the only mare in the other running finished 2nd.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 4-13-58
    French bred: 4-1-19
    British bred: 2-1-9
    German bred: 0-2-6
    American bred: 0-1-4
    6 of 10 winners were French or GB bred, they represented just 28.1% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (7 won)
    9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 151+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts
    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
    7 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (3 exceptions were Quevega winning it for 2nd, 3rd & 4th time)
    6 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (4 exceptions were all grade 1 winners having their first try at 3M+)
    7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions placed in a grade 1 & other having their first start in a grade 1)
    7 of 10 winners (last 5) were course winners (other 5 were having their first course start)

    Punchestown Festival Form
    Defending Punchestown Staying Hurdler (Quevega): 482111 (3-1-6)
    7 of 10 winners had won or placed at the Festival before, other 3 were having their first run at the Punchestown Festival
    3 of 10 winners had run in the 2M 4F Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 1P2.
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 111

    Cheltenham Festival Form
    OLBG Mares Hurdle winner (Quevega): 1111 (4-0-4)
    Highest placed finisher in the World Hurdle to run in this: 2P3P669222 (0-5-10)
    Placed finishers in World Hurdle: P6693 (0-1-5)
    Pertemps Network Final winner (Fingal Bay): 4 (0-0-1)
    9 of 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (4 Mares Hurdle, 2 Pertemps, 1 Champion Hurdle, 1 Coral Cup, 1 World Hurdle)
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Pertemps Final, finishing 50
    4 of 10 winners (all Quevega) ran in Mares Hurdle last time, finishing 1111
    Only 1 of last 10 winners ran in that season’s World Hurdle at Cheltenham

    Other races
    Previous season's Sefton Novices' Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 2172 (1-2-4)
    Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 1 (1-0-1)
    Cleeve Hurdle winner (Knockara Beau): 32 (0-2-2)
    Christmas Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 7922 (0-2-4)
    Galmoy Hurdle winner (Mala Beach): 37702 (0-2-5)
    Long Walk Hurdle winner (Reve De Sivola): P2 (0-1-2)
    Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 564 (0-0-3)
    Record of horses that finished in first 3 in the Aintree Hurdle: 1011 (3-0-4)
    Highest placed finisher in the Liverpool Hurdle: 23P17064 (1-2-8)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 112
    2 of 10 winners ran in the John Smith's Handicap Hurdle last time out, finishing 03
    6 of 10 winners ran at Aintree last time out (Quevega accounts for other 4, she won Mares Hurdle on her previous start before winning this the last 4 years)

    Trainers
    Willie Mullins (5-2-20) has trained the last 5 winners, the last 4 with Quevega.
    British trained runners (4-8-23) have a strong record in this race, having won 4 of the last 10 runnings with over half of their representatives making the places.
    Jonjo O’Neill (2-3-7) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 6 runners since 2004.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-2) & Oliver McKiernan (0-1-3) have both saddled a placed finisher.

    Price
    8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
    There have been two shock winners at 16/1 and 25/1 (both trained in Britain) but other than those two the other 8 winners were all sent off shorter than 7/2.
    Favourites (7-1-10) have a very good record having won 7 of the last 10 (including the last 6), giving a level stakes profit of 7.43.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - French & GB bred horses favoured
    - Aged 8 or younger (or a previous winner)
    - Mares have a very strong record
    - Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days
    - Posted an RPR of 151+ in one or both of last 2 starts
    - A second or third season hurdler (or won last year’s race)
    - Won a grade 1 hurdle
    - Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)
    - Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival
    - Course winner (or having first run here)
    - Ran at the Aintree Festival last time (or in Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham)
    - horses that ran well in Aintree Hurdle do well
    - Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the 2014 World Hurdle
    - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill or by Willie Mullins
    - Priced 7/2 or below (favourites do well).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (21st April 2014) 


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