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    Default CELEBRATION CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The Bet365 Celebration Chase takes place on the undercard of the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday, 26th April. The race is being run as a grade 1 for first time in the race’s history.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-0-2
    6yo: 2-1-6
    7yo: 2-3-16
    8yo: 3-8-23
    9yo+: 2-1-16
    10yo+: 1-3-19
    horses aged 5 to 8: 7-12-47
    horses aged 9+: 3-4-35
    Both winners aged 9 were Irish bred and the one 10yo winner was Cenkos, who had finished 1st & 2nd in previous 2 runnings.

    Breeding
    French Bred: 5-9-36
    Irish Bred: 2-4-24
    GB Bred: 2-2-16
    German Bred: 1-1-4
    NZ bred: 0-0-2
    Since this race was inaugurated in 2001, 9 of 13 winners were either German or French bred
    All 4 winners that were Irish or GB bred were 8 or 9.

    Recent/Past Form
    Only 2 of 10 winners won last time out (both were novice chasers)
    10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 2 to 5 times over fences
    10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
    8 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 chase since August (2 exceptions were novices)
    7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a grade 1 chase (3 exceptions had yet to run in a grade 1)
    9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a class 1 chase (exception unbeaten in 2 chase starts)
    10 of 10 winners were rated 126+ over hurdles (7 of 10 [last 4] were rated 138+)

    Other races
    Previous year's winner (Sire De Grugy): 755346 (0-1-6)
    Game Spirit Chase winner (Module): 213 (1-2-3)
    Victor Chandler Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 132 (1-2-3)
    Previous season's Maghull Novices' Chase winner (Special Tiara): 15 (1-0-2)
    Tingle Creek winner (Sire De Grugy): 3 (0-1-1)
    Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 2 (0-1-1)
    Haldon Gold Cup winner (Somersby): 28 (0-1-2)
    6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 42U2F6
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 53UF
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 4P5
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup, finishing U4
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Maghulls Nov chase, finishing 16
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase, finishing 21

    Trainers
    Paul Nicholls (4-4-18) has trained the winner 4 times in past 10 years.
    Nicky Henderson (1-3-7) has saddled a winner and 3 places from 7 runners since 2004.
    Gary Moore (1-0-2) saddled Sire De Grugy to win this last year.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter
    8 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting but favourites have a poor record.
    Favourites (1-5-11) have won just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 7.75.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 5 to 8 (or Irish bred 9yo)
    - German & French breds do well
    - Ran in past 50 days
    - Run 4 to 7 times this season
    - Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
    - 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser
    - Previously finished in first 5 in a grade 1 chase
    - Won a class 1 chase
    - Rate 138+ over hurdles
    - Ran in Queen Mother, Tingle Creek and/or Melling Chase
    - Paul Nicholls does well in this
    - Priced 9/1 or shorter.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (21st April 2014), neilb (21st April 2014) 


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