2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

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The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 3rd May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years, with 8 of the last 12 going to horses from across the Irish Sea.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
British breds: 5-7-65
Irish breds: 4-11-65
American breds: 1-0-32
French breds: 0-2-2
6 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & 2 others had won the Irish Derby).
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (2 exceptions by Galileo & Montjeu)
Progeny of Dubawi: 123 (1-2-3)
Progeny of Galileo: 243016 (1-2-6)
Progeny of Montjeu: 061 (1-0-3)

Recent Form
8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 85+ on debut
6 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket or Curragh
7 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (3 exceptions were unbeaten in 2 runs)
Last 4 winners were unbeaten coming into the race
9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)
10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (2 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time
9 of 10 winners had won at group level (exception placed in a group 2)
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (3 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial on only start that year)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 5 were having first run here)
3 of 3 British-trained winners won their maiden at Newmarket in July or August

2yo Races
Dewhust winner (War Command): 82211 (2-2-5)
Coventry Stakes winner (War Command): 0001301 (2-1-7)
National Stakes winner (Toormore): 05125701 (2-1-8)
Beresford Stakes winner (Geoffre Chaucer): 35160 (1-1-5)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 01 (1-0-2)
Phoenix Stakes winner (Sudirman): 015 (1-0-3)
Railway Stakes winner (Sudirman): 0615 (1-0-4)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 0601 (1-0-4)
Weatherbys EBF Maiden winner (True Story): 53 (0-1-2)
Prix Morny winner (No Nay Never): 53 (0-1-2)
Middle Park Stakes winner (Astaire): 730 (0-1-3)
Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 482 (0-1-3)
Vintage Stakes (Toormore): 284 (0-1-3)
Solario Stakes winner (Kingman): 0043 (0-1-4)
Champagne Stakes winner (Outstrip): 02044 (0-1-5)
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Karakontie): 48 (0-0-2)
July Stakes winner (Anjaal): 07 (0-0-2)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Astaire): 879 (0-0-3)
Tattersalls Stakes winner (Miracle Of Medinah): 808 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 311
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 33
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the National Stakes
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the Coventry Stakes

3yo Trials
Greenham Stakes winner (Kingman): 66219 (1-1-5)
Craven Stakes winner (Toormore): 160025344 (1-2-9)
Prix Djebel winner (Charm Spirit): 5712 (1-1-4)
Free Handicap winner (Shifting Power): 507087 (0-0-6)
All 3 winners that had run that season won on their only start in the Greenham, Craven & Prix Djebel.

Trainers
Irish trained runners (6-3-35) have won 8 of the last 12 runnings.
French-trained runners (1-2-6) were responsible for winner in 2010 and 2nd & 3rd in 2012 and weren’t represented in 2011 & 2013.
Aidan O’Brien (4-0-23) has trained 5 winners of the race since 2002.
Jim Bolger (1-2-5) trained Dawn Approach to win this last year and his 3 runners prior to last year finished 6th, 2nd and 3rd.
Mikel Delzangles (1-1-2) & John Oxx (1-1-3) have both saddled a winner and placed finisher since 2004.
Richard Hannon yard (0-4-15) has saddled 4 of 12 placed finishers in past 4 renewals.
Michael Stoute (0-0-6) trained 5 winners of this between 1985 & 2001 but his all 6 of his runners in past 10 years have been unplaced.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-10) trained the winner in 1996 & 1999 but his 21 runners since 2000 have yielded no winners and just 1 place.
John Gosden (0-0-3) & Mark Johnston (0-0-3) have both seen their 3 runners in past 10 years finish unplaced.

Price
No strong trends on prices.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of last 10 (including last 3), giving a level stakes loss of 0.75.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a group 1 winner, that finished in first 4 in a 2000 Guineas or won Irish Derby
- Progeny of Dubawi & Galileo do well
- Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 85+
- Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)
- Previously won at least 2 races
- Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
- Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)
- Won a group race
- Won the Dewhurst, Coventry and/or National Stakes
- Won over 7F or 8F
- Trained by Mikel Dezangles or in Ireland (by Aidan O’Brien, John Oxx or Jim Bolger) or
- British-trained that won maiden at Newmarket & finished in first 3 in Champagne Stakes.