1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

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The Qipco 1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket on Sunday, 4th May. Run over a mile for fillies only, it has thrown up a few surprise results in the past few years, with Ghanaati in 2009 winning at 20/1, Blue Bunting at 16/1 in 2011 and Homecoming Queen at 25/1 in 2012. Jacqueline Quest at 66/1 was first past the post in 2010 but subsequently disqualified.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 4-10-70
American bred: 3-3-24
British bred: 2-6-67
French bred: 1-0-2
Japan Bred: 0-1-1
UAE bred: 0-0-2
horses bred in GB & Ire: 6-16-137
horse bred outside of GB & Ire: 4-4-29
American bred horses have won 4 of last 11 runnings.
9 of 10 were by a sire that finished in first 2 in a group 1 over 6F to 1M
Progeny of Giants Causeway: 21 (1-1-2)
Progeny of Holy Roman Emperor: 016 (1-0-3)
Progeny of Galileo: 6230233 (0-5-7)
Progeny of Selkirk: 32 (0-2-2)

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 105+ last time (2 exceptions posted a career high RPR last time)
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (3 exceptions had yet to run there & other was 2nd in two group 3's on 2 runs here)
9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (exception had yet to run in a class 1 race)
9 of 10 winners won or placed on first turf start as a 2yo (exception was unplaced in a group 3 on debut as a 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice
4 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (4 of other won a recognised Guineas Trial last time & 2 others placed in a Guineas Trial)
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F

2yo Races
Rockfel Stakes winner (Al Thakhira): 021100602 (2-2-9)
Prix Robert Papin winner (Vorda): 11 (2-0-2)
Cheveley Park Stakes winner (Vorda): 6051718 (2-0-7)
Moyglare Stud Stakes (Rizeena): 0703031 (1-2-7)
Coolmore Stud EBF Sprint Stakes winner (Sandiva): 21 (1-1-2)
Queen Mary Stakes winner (Rizeena): 103 (1-1-3)
Loder European Breeders Fund 2yo Fillies Race winner (Terrific): 1835 (1-1-4)
Prix La Fleche winner (Vorda): 1 (1-0-1)
British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing EBF Maiden winner (Kiyoshi): 01 (1-0-2)
Montrose Stakes winner (Majeyda): 01 (1-0-2)
Staffordstown Stud Stakes winner (Flying Jib): 01 (1-0-2)
Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Indonesienne): 010 (1-0-3)
Duchess of Cambridge Stakes winner (Lucky Kristale): 1000 (1-0-4)
May Hill winner (Ihtimal): 7332509 (0-3-7)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Wonderfully): 23 (0-2-2)
Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 42350 (0-2-5)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Bracelet): 2 (0-1-1)
Weld Park Stakes winner (My Titania): 2 (0-1-1)
Star Stakes winner (Majeyda): 20 (0-1-2)
Debutante Stakes winner (Tapestry): 0703 (0-1-4)
Albany Stakes winner (Kiyoshi): 089280 (0-1-6)
Princess Margaret Stakes winner (Princess Noor): 76 (0-0-2)
Dick Poole Stakes winner (Joyeuse): 04 (0-0-2)
Bosra Sham Stakes winner (Cape Factor): 06 (0-0-2)
Prestige Stakes winner (Amazing Maria): 040 (0-0-3)
Oh So Sharp Stakes winner (Miss France): 0806 (0-0-4)
Lowther Stakes winner (Lucky Kristale): 6058 (0-0-4)
2 of 2 French-trained winners ran in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11
2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 22
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Weld Park Stakes, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Coolmore Fillies Sprint Stakes, finishing 91
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, finishing 08

3yo Trials
Leopardstown 1000 Guineas winner (Bracelet): 1201 (2-1-4)
Nell Gwynn Stakes winner (Sandiva): 84174659 (1-0-8)
Fred Darling winner (J Wonder): 903806 (0-1-6)
UAE Oaks winner (Ihtimal): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 13
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 11
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Nell Gwynn last time, finishing 12

Trainers
British trained runners: 5-13-124
Irish trained runners: 3-7-35
French trained runners: 2-0-6
French-trained runners (2-0-6) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 8 runners since 2003. Both winners had won a group race against colts as 2yos and also finished in first 2 in a group 1 against colts.
Aidan O’Brien (2-3-16) trained the winner in 2005, the 2nd in 2011, the 1st & 3rd in 2012 & 3rd in 2013.
Jim Bolger (1-3-7) has had 1 winners and 3 places from 7 runners.
Richard Hannon yard (1-1-8) has been responsible for Nasheej to finish 3rd in 2006 and Sky Lantern to win it last year.
The Cecil Yard (0-1-2) has saddled the winner of this 6 times, and saddled 3 winners in 4 years between 1996 & 1999. Their 2 runners since 2004 have been Jacqueline Quest (1st past post in 2010, demoted to 2nd) and unplaced favourite, Hot Snap, in 2013.
Trainers who have not done so well in the race recently include John Gosden (0-1-8), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-10), Clive Brittain (0-0-6), Michael Stoute (0-0-6) and Mick Channon (0-0-14).

Price
No strong trends on prices though there have been a few upsets in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners going off at 16/1 or bigger and but for Jacqueline Quest’s disqualification, the last 5 winners would have been priced 20/1, 66/1, 16/1, 25/1 & 9/1.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 7 & show a level stakes profit of 1.50 since 2004.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- American bred fillies do well
- Sired by a horse that finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 over 6F to 1M
- Run at least 3 times as a 2yo & won or placed on first career turf start
- Won last time out (posting an RPR of 105+)
- Having first run of 2014 or won a recognised 1000 Guineas Trial last time
- Previously won a listed or group race
- Won over 6F to 8F
- Course winner (or having first run at Newmarket)
- French-trained that finished in first 3 in Prix Morny, Imprudence and/or Robert Papin
- Won the Rockfel, Cheveley Park, Nell Gwynn and/or Leopardstown 2000G Trial
- Ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and/or Coolmore Fillies Sprint
- French trained or trained by Aidan O’Brien or Jim Bolger.