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    Default RYANAIR NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014

    The Ryanair Novice Chase takes place at Punchestown on Thursday 1st May. A grade 1 novice chase run over 2 miles, it has been won by some of the best Irish chasers of recent times, including Moscow Flyer, War Of Attrition and Big Zeb.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-0-3
    6yo: 1-1-10
    7yo: 3-8-30
    8yo: 5-3-19
    9yo: 1-0-8
    No very strong trends on ages but 8yos have the best record having won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 27.1% of the runners.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 9-10-55
    French bred: 1-1-6
    British bred: 0-1-5
    Other: 0-0-4
    Irish bred horses have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, though they’ve represented 78.6% of total runners.
    Since 2003 the 8 French bred runners have gained 2 wins and 2 seconds.

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 exceptions unplaced in Arkle or Maghulls)
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 144+ on last completed start
    8 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase last time (2 exception finished in first 3 in a graded handicap chase at Fairyhouse Easter meeting)
    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
    10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times over fences
    10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences
    8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
    9 of 10 winners were rated 128+ over hurdles
    8 of 10 winners had previously fallen over fences
    10 of 10 winners had first ever run in a bumper/hurdle or point to point

    Other races
    Highest placed finisher from the Arkle: B211224124 (3-4-10)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Mallowney): 12 (1-1-2)
    Lightning Novice Chase winner (Valdez): 1 (1-0-1)
    Pendil Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 1 (1-0-1)
    Punchestown For Events Beginners Chase winner (Felix Younger): 1 (1-0-1)
    Clarion Hotel Liffey Valey Novice Handicap Chase winner (Some Tikket): F1 (1-0-2)
    Craddockstown Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 2F2 (0-2-3)
    Killiney Mobile Novice Chase winner (Djakadam): 3 (0-1-1)
    Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Mozoltov): 2 (0-1-1)
    Maghull Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 3 (0-1-1)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 5342 (0-1-4)
    Flyingbolt Novice Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): 26335 (0-1-5)
    6 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 7F581P
    All 4 winners that did not in the Arkle had their start in a chase at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting, finishing in first 3.
    3 of 10 winners ran in Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing F41
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 26
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 22
    2 of 10 winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Irish Arkle, finishing 4F

    Trainers
    British based trainers (2-1-7) have won this race in 3 of the 6 times they’ve been represented since 2003.
    Willie Mullins (2-2-8) trained the winner in 2009 & 2013 and saddled a placed finisher in 2010 & 2012, with no representative in 2011.
    Noel Meade (0-2-3) has saddled the runner-up 4 times since 2000.
    Henry De Bromhead (0-1-3) saddled the third in 2013.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
    All 10 winners went off 6/1 or shorter.
    Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of last 3 but show a level stakes loss of 3.88 since 2004.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Irish or French bred
    - Made racecourse debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
    - Finished in the first 3 last time in a grade 1 or unplaced in Arkle or Maghulls
    - Posted an RPR of 144+ on last completed start
    - Ran in past 55 days
    - Rated 128+ over hurdles
    - Previously run in at least 4 chases
    - Won 1 to 4 chases
    - Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
    - Ran in the Arkle at Cheltenham
    - First 2 in Powers Gold Cup, Maghull and/or November Novice Chase
    - Ran in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
    - Trained in Britain or by Willie Mullins
    - From the first 4 in the betting (6/1 or shorter).

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd April 2014) 


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