RYANAIR NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Ryanair Novice Chase takes place at Punchestown on Thursday 1st May. A grade 1 novice chase run over 2 miles, it has been won by some of the best Irish chasers of recent times, including Moscow Flyer, War Of Attrition and Big Zeb.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 1-1-10
7yo: 3-8-30
8yo: 5-3-19
9yo: 1-0-8
No very strong trends on ages but 8yos have the best record having won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 27.1% of the runners.

Breeding
Irish bred: 9-10-55
French bred: 1-1-6
British bred: 0-1-5
Other: 0-0-4
Irish bred horses have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, though they’ve represented 78.6% of total runners.
Since 2003 the 8 French bred runners have gained 2 wins and 2 seconds.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 exceptions unplaced in Arkle or Maghulls)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 144+ on last completed start
8 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase last time (2 exception finished in first 3 in a graded handicap chase at Fairyhouse Easter meeting)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
9 of 10 winners were rated 128+ over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had previously fallen over fences
10 of 10 winners had first ever run in a bumper/hurdle or point to point

Other races
Highest placed finisher from the Arkle: B211224124 (3-4-10)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Mallowney): 12 (1-1-2)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Valdez): 1 (1-0-1)
Pendil Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 1 (1-0-1)
Punchestown For Events Beginners Chase winner (Felix Younger): 1 (1-0-1)
Clarion Hotel Liffey Valey Novice Handicap Chase winner (Some Tikket): F1 (1-0-2)
Craddockstown Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 2F2 (0-2-3)
Killiney Mobile Novice Chase winner (Djakadam): 3 (0-1-1)
Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Mozoltov): 2 (0-1-1)
Maghull Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 3 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 5342 (0-1-4)
Flyingbolt Novice Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): 26335 (0-1-5)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 7F581P
All 4 winners that did not in the Arkle had their start in a chase at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting, finishing in first 3.
3 of 10 winners ran in Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing F41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 26
2 of 10 winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Irish Arkle, finishing 4F

Trainers
British based trainers (2-1-7) have won this race in 3 of the 6 times they’ve been represented since 2003.
Willie Mullins (2-2-8) trained the winner in 2009 & 2013 and saddled a placed finisher in 2010 & 2012, with no representative in 2011.
Noel Meade (0-2-3) has saddled the runner-up 4 times since 2000.
Henry De Bromhead (0-1-3) saddled the third in 2013.

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
All 10 winners went off 6/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of last 3 but show a level stakes loss of 3.88 since 2004.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Irish or French bred
- Made racecourse debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
- Finished in the first 3 last time in a grade 1 or unplaced in Arkle or Maghulls
- Posted an RPR of 144+ on last completed start
- Ran in past 55 days
- Rated 128+ over hurdles
- Previously run in at least 4 chases
- Won 1 to 4 chases
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Ran in the Arkle at Cheltenham
- First 2 in Powers Gold Cup, Maghull and/or November Novice Chase
- Ran in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- Trained in Britain or by Willie Mullins
- From the first 4 in the betting (6/1 or shorter).