TATTERSALLS IRELAND CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle takes place on the Friday (2nd May) of the Punchestown Festival. A grade 1 novice hurdle, run over 2M 4F, it usually attracts many horses that ran in the Neptune Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, though hurdles winners at the Irish Grand National meeting have tended to do better in this than those coming from Cheltenham.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-2
5yo: 5-3-22
6yo: 4-10-42
7yo: 1-3-19
5yos have the best record, having won 5 of last 10 from 25.9% of total runners.

Gender
Mares (1-0-3) have done well since the turn of the century, gaining 2 wins and 2 places from just 7 runners since 2000. Both female winners of this won the now-Grade 1 Mares Novice Hurdle at the Fairyhouse National meeting on previous start (Annie Power won the race this season).

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time (3 exceptions finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle last time)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 143+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
8 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won 40%+ of their hurdles starts that season
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) were second season hurdlers
5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 (4 of 5 exceptions finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 & other was having first try in graded company)
8 of 10 winners had won a hurdle over 2M 4F to 2M 5F (2 exceptions had yet to run over further than 2M 1F)
8 of 10 winners made their rules debut in a bumper or over hurdles (2 others were rated 84+ on flat)
6 of 10 winners had won a maiden or novice hurdle at Navan that season

Other races
Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 1213 (2-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle: 151F211352 (4-1-10)
Coolmore N.H Sires Fame And Glory Novice Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 317347F (1-2-7)
Irish Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 281 (1-1-3)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 2195 (1-1-4)
EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final winner (Adriana Des Mottes): 1 (1-0-1)
Kells 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Vautour): 1 (1-0-1)
Meath Novice Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 1 (1-0-1)
Christmas Novice Hurdle winner (Valseur Lido): 3 (0-1-1)
Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle winner (Valseur Lido): 92 (0-1-2)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 7 (0-0-1)
Mersey Novice Hurdle winner (Lac Fontana): 2 (0-0-1)
Punchestown Event Centre Maiden Hurdle winner (Apache Stronghold): 73 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle, finishing 6112
2 of 10 winners ran in Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 84
2 of 10 winners ran in the Navan Hurdle, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Slaney Novice Hurdle, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Synergy Security Novice Hurdle, finishing 21
Last 2 winning mares ran in EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final, finishing 11
3 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at the Fairyhouse Grand National meeting, finishing 131

Previous Punchestown Form
4 of 10 winners had run in a bumper at the Festival, finishing 3102
5 of 10 winners were course winners (3 others were having first run at track & another was placed in a grade 1 bumper on only run here)

Trainers
Willie Mullins (4-3-14) has won 6 of the last 12 runnings of this race and he has saddled the winner or runner-up in 5 of the last 7 renewals.
Noel Meade (1-1-7) has gained a win and a place from his 7 representatives since 2004.
Tim Vaughan (1-0-1), Tony Martin (1-0-2) & Eddie O’Grady (1-0-4) have also won the race once in past 10 years.
British trained runners (2-3-12) have won 2 of the last 4 runnings of this race and were responsible for the runner-up in the other 2 years.

Price
7 of the 10 winners were sent off favourite
9 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter
Favourites (7-1-11) have won 7 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.72.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- 5yos have the best record
- Mares are respected
- Had first ever run in bumper or hurdle (or rated 84+ on flat)
- Won last time out in past 55 days (posting RPR of 143+)
- Run at in 4+ hurdles, winning 2 or more
- Second season hurdlers have done well recently
- Won a hurdles race over 2M 4F to 2M 5F (or having first try at 2M4F+)
- Won or placed a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (or won last 2 starts)
- Won over hurdles at Navan this season
- Won a hurdles race at Fairyhouse Grand National meeting
- Finished in first 2 in Neptune, Navan and/or Slaney Novice Hurdle
- Ran in bumper at last year’s Festival
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Tony Martin or in Britain
- First 4 in the betting (favourite especially).