Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,945
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked:        1,657
    Karma Level
    318

    Default CHAMPION FOUR YEAR OLD HURDLE TRENDS 2014

    The AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle is the highlight of the final day of this year’s Punchestown Festival, Saturday 3rd May. A grade 1 run over 2 miles for 4yos, the first 3 from this year’s Triumph Hurdle could take each other on again.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age
    Race for 4yos.

    Gender
    Mares (1-1-10) have done as well as one would have expected, winning 1 of the past 10 renewals from approximately 10.3% of the runners. Since 2000, 2 of the 3 females to make the frame were runner-up in a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham Festival and other was unbeaten.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 4-11-54
    French bred: 3-3-17
    German bred: 2-0-2
    British bred: 1-2-14
    Japanese bred: 0-1-1
    American bred: 0-0-3
    Irish bred runners have won 4 of 10 but represented over 59% of total runners, so actually have a poor record.
    Both German bred horses to run in this were victorious. horses bred on the continent have won 5 of 10 but have only represented 20.9% of total runners.
    8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 or 2 winner on the flat

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners (last 4) finished in first 4 on last completed start (3 exceptions unplaced in Triumph or Anniversary Hurdle)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 126+ last time (last 7 posted an RPR of 130+ last time)
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles since September
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 or 2 hurdles races since September
    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
    5 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception began in a French 3yo hurdle)

    Other races
    Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 2 (0-1-1)
    Record of 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Triumph Hurdle: 0131412214111 (7-3-13)
    Highest placed finisher from the Fred Winter: 27274202 (0-4-8)
    Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 82F5141 (2-1-7)
    Highest placed finishers from Spring Juvenile: 82F2515411 (3-2-10)
    Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 04192 (1-1-5)
    Tayto Hurdle winner (Ivan Grozny): 23335 (0-4-5)
    Value Cabs 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 736 (0-1-3)
    Festival Hospitality On Sale 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Adriana Des Mottes): FB247 (0-1-5)
    Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle winner (Royal Irish Hussar): 94 (0-0-2)
    Anniversary 4yo Novice Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 94 (0-0-2)
    1stsecuritysolutions Juvenile Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 66 (0-0-2)
    Follow Navan Racecourse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Gerdago): 7F (0-0-2)
    Shantou at Burgage Stud Maiden Hurdle winner (Florishwells D'Ete): 54 (0-0-2)
    Greenmount Event Juvenile Hurdle winner (Kitten Joy): 54 (0-0-2)
    Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle winner (Abbyssial): 86566 (0-0-5)
    9 of 10 winners had run in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing 404392324
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 222
    4 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Anniversary 4yo Hurdle last time out, finishing 922B
    4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 2112
    2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Ipad App 4yo Maiden Hurdle, finishing 5U

    Trainers
    British trained runners (5-2-19) have a super record in this race, winning 7 of the last 12 renewals (in 3 of 5 runnings they didn’t win, they had no representative). Nicky Henderson (2-0-2) has seen both his runners since 2004 win this.
    Willie Mullins (2-4-17) has won the race in 2001, 2006 & 2013, however in all 3 years he trained the winner there were no British-trained runners in it.
    Eddie O’Grady (1-1-2) has saddled 1 winner and 1 second from 2 runners since 2004.
    Jessica Harrington (0-1-4) & Gordon Elliot (0-1-5) has each filled 1 place in past 10 runnings.

    Price
    9 of the 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 3 in the betting
    Last 9 winners were all sent off 6/1 or shorter
    Favourites (2-3-10) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - French & German breds do well
    - Sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on the flat
    - Ran on the flat (rated 75+)
    - Run 2 to 6 times since September (winning once or twice)
    - Finished in first 3 last time in past 50 days (posting RPR of 130+)
    - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    - Finished in first 4 in the Triumph Hurdle
    - Finished in first 2 in Spring Juvenile, Anniversary and/or Prestbury Hurdle
    - Trained in Britain or by Willie Mullins or Eddie O’Grady
    - First 3 in the betting (favourite has a poor record).

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd April 2014), neilb (23rd April 2014) 


Similar Threads

  1. TATTERSALLS IRELAND CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 23rd April 2014, 04:48 PM
  2. HERALD CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 22nd April 2014, 11:36 AM
  3. PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 20th April 2014, 03:45 PM
  4. SCOTTISH CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 7th April 2014, 07:56 PM
  5. IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 20th January 2014, 01:00 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •