CHAMPION FOUR YEAR OLD HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle is the highlight of the final day of this year’s Punchestown Festival, Saturday 3rd May. A grade 1 run over 2 miles for 4yos, the first 3 from this year’s Triumph Hurdle could take each other on again.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age
Race for 4yos.

Gender
Mares (1-1-10) have done as well as one would have expected, winning 1 of the past 10 renewals from approximately 10.3% of the runners. Since 2000, 2 of the 3 females to make the frame were runner-up in a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham Festival and other was unbeaten.

Breeding
Irish bred: 4-11-54
French bred: 3-3-17
German bred: 2-0-2
British bred: 1-2-14
Japanese bred: 0-1-1
American bred: 0-0-3
Irish bred runners have won 4 of 10 but represented over 59% of total runners, so actually have a poor record.
Both German bred horses to run in this were victorious. horses bred on the continent have won 5 of 10 but have only represented 20.9% of total runners.
8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 or 2 winner on the flat

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners (last 4) finished in first 4 on last completed start (3 exceptions unplaced in Triumph or Anniversary Hurdle)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 126+ last time (last 7 posted an RPR of 130+ last time)
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles since September
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 or 2 hurdles races since September
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
5 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle
8 of 10 winners (last 7) had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception began in a French 3yo hurdle)

Other races
Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 2 (0-1-1)
Record of 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Triumph Hurdle: 0131412214111 (7-3-13)
Highest placed finisher from the Fred Winter: 27274202 (0-4-8)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 82F5141 (2-1-7)
Highest placed finishers from Spring Juvenile: 82F2515411 (3-2-10)
Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 04192 (1-1-5)
Tayto Hurdle winner (Ivan Grozny): 23335 (0-4-5)
Value Cabs 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 736 (0-1-3)
Festival Hospitality On Sale 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Adriana Des Mottes): FB247 (0-1-5)
Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle winner (Royal Irish Hussar): 94 (0-0-2)
Anniversary 4yo Novice Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 94 (0-0-2)
1stsecuritysolutions Juvenile Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 66 (0-0-2)
Follow Navan Racecourse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Gerdago): 7F (0-0-2)
Shantou at Burgage Stud Maiden Hurdle winner (Florishwells D'Ete): 54 (0-0-2)
Greenmount Event Juvenile Hurdle winner (Kitten Joy): 54 (0-0-2)
Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle winner (Abbyssial): 86566 (0-0-5)
9 of 10 winners had run in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing 404392324
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 222
4 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Anniversary 4yo Hurdle last time out, finishing 922B
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 2112
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Ipad App 4yo Maiden Hurdle, finishing 5U

Trainers
British trained runners (5-2-19) have a super record in this race, winning 7 of the last 12 renewals (in 3 of 5 runnings they didn’t win, they had no representative). Nicky Henderson (2-0-2) has seen both his runners since 2004 win this.
Willie Mullins (2-4-17) has won the race in 2001, 2006 & 2013, however in all 3 years he trained the winner there were no British-trained runners in it.
Eddie O’Grady (1-1-2) has saddled 1 winner and 1 second from 2 runners since 2004.
Jessica Harrington (0-1-4) & Gordon Elliot (0-1-5) has each filled 1 place in past 10 runnings.

Price
9 of the 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 3 in the betting
Last 9 winners were all sent off 6/1 or shorter
Favourites (2-3-10) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French & German breds do well
- Sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on the flat
- Ran on the flat (rated 75+)
- Run 2 to 6 times since September (winning once or twice)
- Finished in first 3 last time in past 50 days (posting RPR of 130+)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Finished in first 4 in the Triumph Hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Spring Juvenile, Anniversary and/or Prestbury Hurdle
- Trained in Britain or by Willie Mullins or Eddie O’Grady
- First 3 in the betting (favourite has a poor record).